XAUUSD H9 | Gold eyes further gains as it crosses $2,500
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The upcoming Jackson Hole symposium, scheduled for August 22-24, is expected to be a significant event for financial markets. Hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the gathering will bring together central bankers, policymakers, and economists from around the world. Investors are eagerly awaiting Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks, which could provide crucial insights into the Federal Reserve’s policy direction.
Bank of America (BofA) strategists suggest that Powell may offer a clear assessment of the current economic situation, signaling that the Fed is “very close” to beginning an easing cycle. This would indicate confidence in controlling inflation, with a growing emphasis on maintaining a strong labor market. Powell may highlight the need to avoid “unexpected weakness” in employment, suggesting that job preservation could become a priority in 2024.
The market is largely expecting a 25-basis-point rate cut in September, but strategists caution that more hawkish language from Powell could flatten the U.S. Treasury yield curve. Historically, rate volatility decreases following Jackson Hole as policy uncertainty eases.
Recent inflation data, including the July Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI), showed signs of easing inflationary pressures. The CPI rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year, supporting the potential for a rate cut. The market anticipates the Fed will begin easing rates in September if inflation continues to moderate.
In addition to economic factors, escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have boosted demand for gold, a traditional safe haven. The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, with potential Iranian involvement, has heightened fears of broader regional instability.
The outlook for gold prices remains bullish in the short term, supported by a weakening U.S. dollar, expectations of an imminent rate cut, and ongoing geopolitical risks. Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole will be pivotal, potentially influencing both gold prices and broader market sentiment.
Bank of America (BofA) strategists suggest that Powell may offer a clear assessment of the current economic situation, signaling that the Fed is “very close” to beginning an easing cycle. This would indicate confidence in controlling inflation, with a growing emphasis on maintaining a strong labor market. Powell may highlight the need to avoid “unexpected weakness” in employment, suggesting that job preservation could become a priority in 2024.
The market is largely expecting a 25-basis-point rate cut in September, but strategists caution that more hawkish language from Powell could flatten the U.S. Treasury yield curve. Historically, rate volatility decreases following Jackson Hole as policy uncertainty eases.
Recent inflation data, including the July Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI), showed signs of easing inflationary pressures. The CPI rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year, supporting the potential for a rate cut. The market anticipates the Fed will begin easing rates in September if inflation continues to moderate.
In addition to economic factors, escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have boosted demand for gold, a traditional safe haven. The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, with potential Iranian involvement, has heightened fears of broader regional instability.
The outlook for gold prices remains bullish in the short term, supported by a weakening U.S. dollar, expectations of an imminent rate cut, and ongoing geopolitical risks. Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole will be pivotal, potentially influencing both gold prices and broader market sentiment.
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