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XAUUSD: Monthly oversold, in an uptrend...

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There's a chance we have the bottom in place here, I'm holding longs, aiming for a daily target to be hit by August 1st, but there's a chance this rally extends further and triggers a bigger short squeeze, pushing gold to 1550-1650 over time. Commitment of traders data shows commercial hedgers have been unwinding short positions, which has been a signal for local intermediate term bottoms, like the ones in Dec 2015, Dec 2016, July 2017 and Dec 2017.
Quarterly support held, we have a very oversold signal here and good evidence to support a rally in gold, commodities and currencies against the dollar. I still hold long positions in equities, but I have longs in EURUSD and Gold as well.
As a sidenote, recently I reached extreme levels of capitulation, personally, trying to go long prematurely before, and I saw that Peter Schiff was talking positively about Bitcoin after a debate with Erik Vorhees, and even was seen sending his first Bitcoin transaction. I see this as more evidence of a bottom in gold here, thinking like a contrarian.

Best of luck,

Ivan Labrie.

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