Gold Long Term Analysis
So I thought I'd post some thoughts for the first time on TradingView. As we've all heard a million times; 'the trend is your friend.' Given the price movement in Gold in the last week, I thought I'd zoom out on the weekly chart for Gold to see where last week's results sit with the longer-term trend.
I've been using the adaptive trend finder from Julian_Eche, I like this tool because it provides some empirical rigour around identifying the trend along with some statistical testing to determine the strength.
Whilst gold has been in an uptrend since ~Sept '23 we can see that the current trend was established in over the last 20 weeks with a pearson R squared of over 0.98 suggesting that the weekly close is adhering very closely to this established price channel. Last week's close appears to have been a result of some mixed economic news and profit taking however, the trend is still being respected. Given the mixed news from employment data and the PMI figures last week following higher than expected inflation data it appears that the Fed is still likely to cut 25pbs at the end of the week. The US presedential election result also looks to remain tight and it may take days for the result to be known adding uncertainty for markets. Gold ETFs have also seen substantial inflows this year as investors pour into the safe-haven asset which have supported the price.
I believe that all this supports higher prices on the precious metal in the short to medium term and the intra-week movements seem to have respected established channel so far.
I've been using the adaptive trend finder from Julian_Eche, I like this tool because it provides some empirical rigour around identifying the trend along with some statistical testing to determine the strength.
Whilst gold has been in an uptrend since ~Sept '23 we can see that the current trend was established in over the last 20 weeks with a pearson R squared of over 0.98 suggesting that the weekly close is adhering very closely to this established price channel. Last week's close appears to have been a result of some mixed economic news and profit taking however, the trend is still being respected. Given the mixed news from employment data and the PMI figures last week following higher than expected inflation data it appears that the Fed is still likely to cut 25pbs at the end of the week. The US presedential election result also looks to remain tight and it may take days for the result to be known adding uncertainty for markets. Gold ETFs have also seen substantial inflows this year as investors pour into the safe-haven asset which have supported the price.
I believe that all this supports higher prices on the precious metal in the short to medium term and the intra-week movements seem to have respected established channel so far.
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