Analysis of the latest gold market trends:

1月24日

Analysis of gold news: In the U.S. market on Friday (January 24), spot gold surged higher but encountered resistance and fell back. Spot gold bottomed out and rebounded on Thursday, falling to $2,735.83/ounce earlier in the session, but the change in the number of initial jobless claims in the United States performed worse than market expectations, and the dollar weakened after U.S. President Trump called for lower interest rates. Gold prices recovered all losses and closed at $2,754.59/ounce. Market attention remains focused on the broad impact of Trump's policies. Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, said: "Part of the reason is the dollar. The dollar rose early on Thursday and then was sold off, so it pushed gold off its lows. Thursday's trend is just a recognition of the direction of the White House. I think some of the volatility is due to this expectation." In his speech at the World Economic Forum, Trump emphasized his commitment to reverse inflation and announced that he hopes to cut interest rates immediately. He also urged other countries to take similar measures to address global economic challenges. However, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders believe that there is a 99.5% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at the January 28-29 meeting. The uncertainty of Trump's future policies has prompted market participants to flock to safe-haven assets such as gold to hedge against volatility. Investors need to pay attention to Trump's dynamic news and changes in market sentiment. This trading day also needs to pay attention to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision and the January PMI data of European and American countries.

Gold technical analysis: The trend of gold prices is in line with our expectations. It has fallen back and risen many times during the period, and it has been emphasized many times recently that the 2790 line is the ultimate goal, and it is getting closer and closer! Gold first stepped back and then rose, closing higher at the end of the day. It stepped back to the 2736 line on the middle track of the 4-hour chart and stabilized and then rose and closed at a high level. The long channel remains unchanged, and the trend of rising while consolidating and correcting. The daily line is still strong and the strong consolidation correction replaced the retracement correction, closing at a high level in late trading. There is a high probability of breaking the high momentum the next day. Gold prices also opened up without hesitation in the Asian morning session. If it continues to break through the high of 2763 today, today's high will go directly to 2790! During this period, we will continue to maintain the idea of ​​falling back and going long!

Gold is running in the 4-hour rising channel, which is also a step-up rising channel. Yesterday, it stepped back close to the critical point of the middle track. It has been emphasized before that in a unilateral market, the middle track is a strong and weak dividing point. Keep the middle track and look long. Yesterday, it perfectly stepped back to the middle track, which is equivalent to a perfect opportunity to enter the long position. The strong market is afraid of not giving the opportunity to enter the market. As long as there is a gold step-back, it is an opportunity to go long. The defensive position can be moved up to 2736. Traders who do not have any trading orders also choose to step back to go long at a low position. Because the gold price has also adjusted in the process of yesterday's downward exploration, and this wave will also be a new wave of rising waves, gold will inevitably rise and break through the previous high of 2763 and move towards a higher point! On the whole, our professional gold analyst team recommends that the short-term operation strategy for gold should be mainly long on pullbacks, supplemented by shorting on rebounds. The short-term focus on the upper side is the 2793-2798 resistance line, and the short-term focus on the lower side is the 2765-2760 support line.

1月25日

交易進行

CFTC Positions: Gold and crude oil longs surged, Swiss franc shorts surged, and U.S. Treasury positions diverged

According to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), as of the week of January 21, 2025, market speculators' positions in various financial products changed significantly, showing a subtle shift in market sentiment. Position data for precious metals, energy, foreign exchange futures markets, and U.S. Treasury bonds provide us with a window into market trends. The following is a detailed interpretation of changes in positions in these key markets.

Precious metals:

Gold: COMEX gold speculators increased their net long positions by 21,864 lots to 234,358 lots. This indicates that the market's bullish sentiment on gold has increased, which may be related to increased global economic uncertainty or rising inflation expectations.

Silver: COMEX silver speculators increased their net long positions by 746 lots to 29,549 lots. Silver's position changes were relatively small, but still showed a certain bullish tendency, which may be affected by improved expectations for industrial demand.

Copper: COMEX copper speculators increased their net long positions by 3,944 lots to 17,861 lots. The increase in copper positions may reflect the market's expectations for global economic recovery and increased industrial activity. As an important industrial metal, copper's demand is closely related to economic activity.

Energy:

Crude oil: WTI crude oil speculators increased their net long positions by 21,163 lots to 236,354 lots. This change indicates that the market's demand expectations for crude oil are more optimistic, which may be related to expectations for global economic recovery and the production cut policy of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

Natural gas: In the four major NYMEX and ICE markets, natural gas speculators increased their net long positions by 17,044 lots to 246,884 lots. The increase in natural gas positions may be related to increased winter heating demand and concerns about natural gas supply.

Foreign exchange:

Swiss franc: The net short position of Swiss franc is -41,837 lots. This shows that the market has a strong bearish sentiment towards the Swiss franc, which may be related to poor Swiss economic data or increased global risk appetite.

Pound: The net short position of the pound is -8,257 lots. The change in the position of the pound shows that the market has some differences in its short-term trend, but the overall bearish sentiment is still dominant.

Euro: The net short position of the euro is -62,486 lots. Changes in euro positions may be related to the European Central Bank's monetary policy expectations and fluctuations in euro zone economic data.

Yen: The net short position of the yen is -14,673 lots. The change in Japanese yen positions is relatively small, but still shows that the market is more cautious about its short-term trend.

U.S. Treasuries:

Overall Treasury bonds: CBOT U.S. Treasury futures net long position increased by 24,404 lots to 24,456 lots. This shows that the overall demand for U.S. Treasuries has increased, which may be related to the market's concerns about the outlook for the U.S. economy and the increased demand for safe assets.

2-Year Treasury: CBOT US 2-Year Treasury futures net short position decreased by 82,829 lots to 1,174,377 lots. The change in 2-Year Treasury positions may reflect the market's adjustment of short-term interest rate expectations, and the market may expect the Federal Reserve to adopt a more relaxed monetary policy.

5-Year Treasury: CBOT US 5-Year Treasury futures net short position increased by 18,570 lots to 1,796,191 lots. The change in 5-Year Treasury positions may be related to the market's adjustment of medium-term interest rate expectations, and the market may expect interest rates to rise.

10-Year Treasury Bonds: CBOT's net short position in U.S. 10-year Treasury bond futures increased by 12,310 contracts to 580,245 contracts. The change in 10-Year Treasury positions may reflect the market's adjustment of long-term interest rate expectations, and the market may expect long-term interest rates to rise.

Ultra-long Treasury bonds: CBOT U.S. ultra-long Treasury bond futures net short positions decreased by 12,434 lots to 229,988 lots. Changes in ultra-long Treasury bond positions may be related to market concerns about the long-term economic outlook and increased demand for safe assets.

Agricultural products:

Corn: CBOT corn speculators increased their net long positions by 31,661 lots to 170,460 lots. The increase in corn positions may be related to the market's expectations of increased demand for corn, especially in the feed and biofuel sectors.

Soybeans: CBOT soybean speculators reduced their net long positions by 871 lots to 1,159 lots. Changes in soybean positions may be related to market concerns about soybean supply and uncertainty about demand.

Wheat: CBOT wheat speculators reduced their net short positions by 8,947 lots to 87,670 lots. Changes in wheat positions may be related to the market's expectations of improved wheat supply and optimistic expectations for demand.

Coffee: ICE coffee speculators increased their net long position by 2,254 lots to 51,054 lots. The increase in coffee positions may be related to the market's expectations of increased demand for coffee and concerns about supply.

Sugar: ICE sugar speculators increased their net short position by 34,800 lots to 137,267 lots. The change in sugar positions may be related to the market's expectations of increased sugar supply and concerns about demand.

Cocoa: ICE cocoa speculators increased their net long position by 455 lots to 22,542 lots. The increase in cocoa positions may be related to the market's expectations of increased demand for cocoa and concerns about supply.

Cotton: ICE cotton speculators increased their net short position by 3,183 lots to 60,471 lots. The change in cotton positions may be related to the market's expectations of increased cotton supply and concerns about demand.

Market speculators' positions on various financial products have changed significantly this week. The precious metals and energy markets have shown a certain bullish sentiment, while the foreign exchange market has shown complex changes in positions. The overall demand in the U.S. Treasury market increased, but the positions of Treasury bonds of different maturities changed differently. The position changes in the agricultural product market reflected the market's adjustment of the supply and demand expectations of different agricultural products. These data provide us with important clues to market trends.

1月26日

交易結束：目標達成

Analysis of gold market trends next week:

Gold news analysis: Gold prices rose nearly 1% on Friday (January 24), close to the historical high set in October last year, mainly driven by U.S. President Donald Trump's call for interest rate cuts and uncertainty in his trade policy. Spot gold rose as much as 0.12% to $2,785.50 per ounce, up 2.8% this week. Gold prices are currently at their highest level since the all-time high of $2,790.15 per ounce set on October 31 last year. The U.S. dollar index fell to a one-month low, making dollar-denominated gold cheaper for foreign buyers. Gold prices are heading towards new all-time highs, coinciding with a correction in the US dollar. The dollar weakened as Trump hinted that he might relax his tariff policy on China and choose to reach a trade agreement. On Thursday, Trump said at the World Economic Forum in Davos that he would ask for an immediate rate cut. In an interview with Fox NEW, Trump said he preferred not to use tariffs to resolve trade issues with China. Zero-yielding gold is seen as a hedge during times of political and economic turmoil and performs well in a low-interest rate environment. Trump’s comments come ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting, when policymakers are widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged.

Gold once again continued its previous upward trend on Friday. It hit the 2785 line at its highest in the US market and then retreated under pressure, approaching the historical high and closing at the 2770 line. The daily line also closed in the inverted hammer shape of the upper lead. Although There is a willingness to go higher and fall back on Friday, but for now, the support of 2770 is still resisting stubbornly, and it has not broken after all. Next week is also the announcement of the interest rate decision. Before that, gold is likely to be in shock. Of course, it does not rule out the early release of news. Once the Asian early trading opens flat next Monday, the 2770 line may also fall. What needs to be tested is the top-bottom conversion 2762-60 area below. This The position is also the rising point of the upward trend, while the upper suppression port remains near 2780-88. In the short term, it is likely to fluctuate around this range, waiting for a later breakthrough.

Judging from the 4-hour market analysis, the performance of the Asian morning session and the European session on Monday is also more important. The US session also needs to follow the trends of the European session for layout, regardless of whether the bulls can break through in the later period and set a new high again, or form a retracement correction. situation, there may be a wave of upward energy in the later period.

Our professional and experienced gold analyst team recommends the short-term operation strategy for next Monday
Gold operation strategy:

1. Go long when gold falls back to 2758-2762, and add more positions when it falls back to 2750-2753, stop loss 2743, target 2780-2788;