Gold at PRZ—Will Bears Take Over Soon!?

2月14日

Today, U.S. Retail Sales data will be released:

Core Retail Sales (Forecast: 0.4%) → If lower than expected, it may indicate weaker consumer spending, potentially weakening the USD(DXY).

Retail Sales (Forecast: 0.4%) → A lower-than-expected reading would signal economic weakness and increase expectations for Fed rate cuts.

Given recent economic trends and previous reports like CPI (inflation) and PPI (producer inflation) coming in higher than expected, retail sales data is more likely to be stronger than forecasted or at least in line with expectations.

Potential Market Impact: If the data is stronger than expected: USD strengthens → Gold declines.

There is a slightly higher probability that the data will be stronger than expected (or in line with forecasts). However, if the data disappoints, the market could react sharply.

If the indexes are close to or match the forecasts, there will be less expectation of emotional market movement.
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Gold(XAUUSD) started to rise, as I expected in the previous post. Currently, Gold is near the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ)[$2,951-$2,940], the upper line of the Ascending Channel, Monthly Resistance(2), and Yearly Resistance(1).

According to the theory of Elliott waves, Gold seems to be completing microwave 5 of the main wave 5. One of the confirmation signs of the end of wave 5 can be the breaking of the lower line of the ascending channel.

Also, we can see the Regular Divergence(RD-) between Consecutive Peaks.

I expect Gold to go down to at least $2,920 first after breaking the lower line of the ascending channel, and if the Support zone($2,915-$2,905) is broken, we should wait for an attack on the 100_SMA(1-hour) and the Support line.

Note: If Gold breaks the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ)[$2,951-$2,940], we can expect more pumps.

Be sure to follow the updated ideas.

Gold Analyze ( XAUUSD ), 15-minute time frame.

Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).

Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.

Please do not forget the ✅' like'✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.

2月14日

交易進行

Trade was activated after Gold broke the lower line of the Ascending Channel.

2月15日

交易結束：目標達成

Full Target Done

Although Gold fell more.