Gold bulls and bears' life and death line, the Fed breaks the ga

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Spot gold has continued its recent strong pattern. The dual drive of geopolitical risks and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations has pushed gold prices to a record high. The sudden escalation of the situation in the Middle East - Israel's air strikes on Gaza killed more than 400 people, and the Trump administration's remarks on the implementation of new tariffs on April 2 have exacerbated the market's risk aversion.

Federal Reserve policy expectations dominate short-term fluctuations
Although the market expects that this meeting will keep interest rates unchanged, the focus is on the following three points:
Dot plot adjustment: If the expectation of interest rate cuts in June and July is further strengthened, the US dollar will be under pressure;
Economic forecast: Revisions to inflation and employment data will affect the market's expectations of a "soft landing";
Powell stated: Any hint of a "preventive interest rate cut" may trigger a gold breakthrough.

The Fed's decision sets the tone
Dovish scenario: If the dot plot confirms three rate cuts this year and Powell mentions "economic downside risks", the US dollar may fall below key support, pushing gold prices above $3,050 and challenging the 3,100 integer mark.
Hawkish surprise: If the Fed downplays the need for rate cuts, a rebound in the US dollar may cause gold prices to fall back to the 2,992-3,015 support band in the short term, but the geopolitical risk premium will limit the decline. Before the trend is clearly reversed, it is still a reasonable choice to maintain a short-term strategy of "buy on pullback". XAUUSD XAUUSD XAUUSD XAUUSD BTCUSD