Gold approaching short term top, has it?

2021年5月7日

XAUUSD

Since it's breaching of 1760-1764 resistance, XAU has been invincible all the way until close to 1800 psychological barrier where it attempted twice until it successfully break out on its 3rd attempt, closing @ 1814 levels yesterday.

Looking at longer time frame XAU upside looks like to be capped at the strong downtrend channel, unless there are specific break through XAU can break out for the second time.

As for today, when looking into daily chart, RSI still is not too oversold which means it still has room to go up further, bear in mind even though it reaches oversold it does not necessarily mean it has reached its top, very much depending on price actions when hitting the oversold threshold and we can see how things unfold from there. But as for now, together with strong RSI upside potential XAU has also breached the upper line of DC yesterday meaning it is still well within the breakout price action, there is no reason to pick a sell at this stage, buy in dip is the rule of the game unless it break supports below 1723, then you can consider sell. Trade against the trend is not a wise strategy my friend no matter how high you think the price is.

Based on above analysis, I expect XAU to further grow towards 1850-1864 area, if you have open buy positions, book in half of profits @ 1850-1852 and let the remaining half fly, set stop loss by $1 above your entry positions so the risk is well controlled in case of sudden reversal.

If you are still wanting to enter the trade, set buy limit @ 1797-1800 levels, stop loss below 1790 or if daily closed below 1790.

Again, don't set sell orders which is unwise. If you are a gold bear insist on selling, consider sell limit @ 1850-1860, stop loss 1880, it's a wide range shall you want to pick against the trend, risk follows.

Above is no personal advice nor can be applied to anyone, but just my 2cents on recent XAU price actions.

Good luck trading!

2021年5月7日

註釋

The worse than expected NFP further fuels the technically bullish XAU, any price correction lower from now is a good buy opportunity, use example current price around 1827 still a good entry price, stop loss below 1812, target 1860-64. If uptrent goes as expected, set stop loss to entry price, XAU can potentially break out the long term downtrend, and you'd expect the next biggest resistance @ 1957, that's a very good risk-reward ratio. Again, as long as price above 1812 it's a buy opportunity.