XAU/USD Outlook: Technical Key Resistance in Focus.
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1. Elliott Wave Theory: Wave Analysis
Wave 5 Completion (Top of Impulsive Move):
End of Wave 5 marks the peak of the bullish phase, followed by a corrective move (ABC correction).
Wave 5 Targets and Invalidations:
Expected completion around 2,749 - 2,750 (resistance zone).
Further upward movement could trigger profit-taking, invalidating further upward thrusts if price breaks below 2,742.
Wave 4 Retracement Level:
Key Fibonacci levels: 0.34 (2,707.143) and 0.382 (2,707.749).
Price reversal after Wave 5 could retest these levels as a critical buy zone.
2. Wyckoff Method: Distribution and Range Structure
Distribution Phase:
Smart money is preparing to offload positions, leading to markdown in prices.
Phase A to Phase B:
Phase A (Initial Selling Pressure): Signs of distribution occur; strong resistance met.
Phase B (Distribution): Establishes a range with Upthrust (UT) and Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD) leading to false breakouts.
Preliminary Supply (PSY): Key resistance area where institutions sell, creating initial downward pressure.
Automatic Rally (AR): Price rebounds within the range, marked around 2,718.091 (support line if market turns bearish).
Sign of Weakness (SOW): Early indication of the distribution phase completing; marked near Wednesday or Thursday.
Phase C (Expected Breakout):
Final test or false break of resistance (UTAD) before a sharper decline.
3. Smart Money Concepts (SMC): Market Structure and Liquidity
Change of Character (CHoCH):
Potential shift from bullish to bearish expected next week after breaking highlighted structure level near AR.
Market Structure Break (MSB):
Expected below PSY and AR levels, confirming distribution.
Liquidity Grab & Trap Setup:
Areas highlighted for liquidity grabs around upthrust points (UT), likely early in the week with potential sharp reversal around 2,750.
4. Key Technical Levels & Patterns
Upper Resistance Zone:
2,742 - 2,750 area serves as strong resistance; potential for false breakout (upthrust).
Strong sell-off expected if price fails to hold above 2,742.
Support Levels:
2,718.091 (AR Distribution Line): First significant support; break confirms markdown phase.
2,707 - 2,700 (Wave 4 Retracement Levels): Critical support for bullish bounce; breach leads to significant decline.
Lower Target Levels:
Expect price to reach 2,645.655 and potentially 2,638.105 after markdown.
5. Time-Based Projections
Monday-Tuesday (Range-Bound, Liquidity Grab):
Price may test liquidity above the UT area, hitting 2,742-2,750 range with potential false breakout.
Wednesday (Sign of Weakness in Phase B):
Price expected to weaken, testing AR levels, signaling a bearish market structure.
Thursday-Friday (Bearish Breakout Expected):
Anticipate a decisive break lower, entering Phase C and marking clear distribution.
6. Risk Management Strategy
Invalidation Point:
Bullish scenario invalidated if price breaks and closes below 2,707.
Stop-Loss Placement:
For short positions, place stop-loss above 2,750 to avoid traps.
Take-Profit Zones:
First target at 2,718, further downside at 2,645.
Next Week’s Trading Plan
Short Setup:
Look for selling opportunities around 2,742-2,750, especially after false breakouts or upthrusts.
Use SOW and CHoCH to confirm bearish entries.
Target Levels:
Expect price drop to 2,718, followed by 2,707 and possibly 2,645 if markdown is strong.
Timing:
Watch for reversal around midweek (Wednesday-Thursday) when bearish momentum likely takes control.
Wave 5 Completion (Top of Impulsive Move):
End of Wave 5 marks the peak of the bullish phase, followed by a corrective move (ABC correction).
Wave 5 Targets and Invalidations:
Expected completion around 2,749 - 2,750 (resistance zone).
Further upward movement could trigger profit-taking, invalidating further upward thrusts if price breaks below 2,742.
Wave 4 Retracement Level:
Key Fibonacci levels: 0.34 (2,707.143) and 0.382 (2,707.749).
Price reversal after Wave 5 could retest these levels as a critical buy zone.
2. Wyckoff Method: Distribution and Range Structure
Distribution Phase:
Smart money is preparing to offload positions, leading to markdown in prices.
Phase A to Phase B:
Phase A (Initial Selling Pressure): Signs of distribution occur; strong resistance met.
Phase B (Distribution): Establishes a range with Upthrust (UT) and Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD) leading to false breakouts.
Preliminary Supply (PSY): Key resistance area where institutions sell, creating initial downward pressure.
Automatic Rally (AR): Price rebounds within the range, marked around 2,718.091 (support line if market turns bearish).
Sign of Weakness (SOW): Early indication of the distribution phase completing; marked near Wednesday or Thursday.
Phase C (Expected Breakout):
Final test or false break of resistance (UTAD) before a sharper decline.
3. Smart Money Concepts (SMC): Market Structure and Liquidity
Change of Character (CHoCH):
Potential shift from bullish to bearish expected next week after breaking highlighted structure level near AR.
Market Structure Break (MSB):
Expected below PSY and AR levels, confirming distribution.
Liquidity Grab & Trap Setup:
Areas highlighted for liquidity grabs around upthrust points (UT), likely early in the week with potential sharp reversal around 2,750.
4. Key Technical Levels & Patterns
Upper Resistance Zone:
2,742 - 2,750 area serves as strong resistance; potential for false breakout (upthrust).
Strong sell-off expected if price fails to hold above 2,742.
Support Levels:
2,718.091 (AR Distribution Line): First significant support; break confirms markdown phase.
2,707 - 2,700 (Wave 4 Retracement Levels): Critical support for bullish bounce; breach leads to significant decline.
Lower Target Levels:
Expect price to reach 2,645.655 and potentially 2,638.105 after markdown.
5. Time-Based Projections
Monday-Tuesday (Range-Bound, Liquidity Grab):
Price may test liquidity above the UT area, hitting 2,742-2,750 range with potential false breakout.
Wednesday (Sign of Weakness in Phase B):
Price expected to weaken, testing AR levels, signaling a bearish market structure.
Thursday-Friday (Bearish Breakout Expected):
Anticipate a decisive break lower, entering Phase C and marking clear distribution.
6. Risk Management Strategy
Invalidation Point:
Bullish scenario invalidated if price breaks and closes below 2,707.
Stop-Loss Placement:
For short positions, place stop-loss above 2,750 to avoid traps.
Take-Profit Zones:
First target at 2,718, further downside at 2,645.
Next Week’s Trading Plan
Short Setup:
Look for selling opportunities around 2,742-2,750, especially after false breakouts or upthrusts.
Use SOW and CHoCH to confirm bearish entries.
Target Levels:
Expect price drop to 2,718, followed by 2,707 and possibly 2,645 if markdown is strong.
Timing:
Watch for reversal around midweek (Wednesday-Thursday) when bearish momentum likely takes control.
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