GOLD - BUY - Wycoff -70%

2024年7月26日

Chart Analysis (XAU/USD 30m):

Missed the initial break out but here is a very tidy Wycoff Pattern play.

GTP to confirm

1. Current Price:** 2386.305
2. Trend:** The chart shows a recent recovery from a low around 2360.000, with a bullish reversal and price breaking above key resistance levels.
3. Support Levels:**
- Immediate support around 2380.000
- Strong support around 2360.000
4. Resistance Levels:**
- Immediate resistance at 2393.117 (psychological level)
- Strong resistance at 2408.704 and 2399.040

Commitments of Traders (COT) Data:

1. Date:** Latest COT data as of 21 Jul 2024
2. Net Positions:**
- Long positions: 60.33%
- Short positions: 11.18%
- Net positions: 285024 (increase from previous weeks)
3.Open Interest:**
- Increased significantly, indicating a rise in market activity and interest in gold positions.

Probability and Strategy:

1.Bullish Probability:**
- Given the strong bullish reversal and breaking above key resistance, there's a 70% probability of continuation higher towards 2393.117, 2399.040, and possibly 2408.704.
- Long positions are favored as long as the price remains above 2380.000 support.
2.Bearish Scenario:**
- There's a 30% probability of a retracement back to 2380.000 or lower towards 2360.000 if bearish momentum picks up.
- Watch for bearish reversal signals around the current price area for potential short opportunities.

Recommendations:

1.Long Positions:**
- Ideal to maintain long positions with a stop loss below 2380.000.
- Target areas: 2393.117, 2399.040, and 2408.704.
2.Short Positions:**
- Consider short positions only if the price shows strong bearish reversal signals around 2393.117 resistance area.
- Target areas: 2380.000, 2360.000.

Wyckoff Patterns:

1.Pattern Identification:** Continue monitoring for Wyckoff patterns across all time frames, focusing on the initial stages up to the Secondary Test.
2.Alerts:** Set up alerts on TradingView for key levels and potential pattern formations.

Lets see