First of all I would like to use the 2009.03. goldchart again because I still think the situation is quite similar.
Bear market ended 2008.11. with a double bottom. 4 months of rally and an intermediate correction with 2 daily cycles.
I highlighted by an arrow where I think we are. 18.03. was a big up day. It was a FED day.
The dollar had a big decline - just like this Friday .We had one more green day and the daily cycle topped at around 968 and the intermediate decline continued.
I'm waiting for the same thing on Monday or Tuesday. I think Yellen will hit a hawkish tone at the Monday speech:
the dollar decline should be stopped.
So most probably Yellen will trigger tomorrow a Daily cycle top in gold and gold will continue its intermediate decline below 1200.
Based on this I will close most of the XAUUSD longs tomorrow...
But I will not go short immediately. I will explain in the next chart why...
Bear market ended 2008.11. with a double bottom. 4 months of rally and an intermediate correction with 2 daily cycles.
I highlighted by an arrow where I think we are. 18.03. was a big up day. It was a FED day.
The dollar had a big decline - just like this Friday .We had one more green day and the daily cycle topped at around 968 and the intermediate decline continued.
I'm waiting for the same thing on Monday or Tuesday. I think Yellen will hit a hawkish tone at the Monday speech:
the dollar decline should be stopped.
So most probably Yellen will trigger tomorrow a Daily cycle top in gold and gold will continue its intermediate decline below 1200.
Based on this I will close most of the XAUUSD longs tomorrow...
But I will not go short immediately. I will explain in the next chart why...
評論:
Corrected: wait for a bounce up to ***1255-60-65***...
Maybe a break of the upper trendline...