Binary_Forecasting_Service的FX_IDC:XAUUSD的MQP PRESENTS - SOMETHING HAS TO GIVE (CORRECTED, 15 MIN BARS)

MQP PRESENTS - SOMETHING HAS TO GIVE (CORRECTED, 15 MIN BARS)

HEADER - This has been corrected for timezone. For some reason it was set for Honolulu. I switched it to ET or NY time. For the rest of this chart (7/31-8/16) 15-min bars are fine.

SUMMARY - This just continues from last post. We are getting ready to explode in under 48 hours. There's just a few more steps that needs to happen.

DETAILS - Please read previous post for details, especially last 2 posts. Will add notes soon.

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NOTES 1 - 7/31 11 AM ET, ARROW DATES.
1) again, the arrows are:
2) gray for ADP
3) black for NFP
4) orange for CPI
5) red for PPI
6) and finally blue for Fed minutes
7) the first four all in the morning at 8:30 AM ET
8) just realized I haven't confirmed the Fed minutes day
9) it's usually 3 weeks after FOMC meeting, at 1PM ET
10) so I put it there w/o checking...

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11) minutes later
12) they do change things all the time don't they?
13) so blue arrow is 1 day early, I had it set for 8/16
14) but it is 8/17, so blue arrow should move to the right a bit

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NOTES 2 - ADDED HILIGHT FOR next 48 hours
1) in this setup, that should be what happens
2) but waves from 1-7 days all together DON'T FAVOR THE HILIGHTED ROUTE
3) but because of the ENTIRETY OF ALL THE TRENDS from 9 to 18432 days...
4) and I broke it down since Sunday in the last two posts...
5) I think that path makes the most sense

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6) so price action from now until 3 AM TUES MORNING is SUPER IMPORTANT FOR this path to 2200
7) I can't stress how important this part is
8) this next 17 hours is the last surprise make/break zone
9) in the sense that the trends under 24 hours must override the whole entire mess that is 1-day to 6 day trends by moving to 1985-ish and holding above 1975 for 6-8 hours
10) personally, Im already in for 4/9 now of funds
11) the last 5/9 is for Tuesday PM

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NOTES 3 - MIS READ WAVE NUMBERS
1) everything under 72 hours (3 days) looks ready to go
2) but it's everything between 86 and 210 hours (3.25 to 8.75 days)
3) technically they all have positive slope now
4) we just need those waves from 86-210 hours to get in order
5) it is also true, that by the time they get in order
6) we maybe above 2000 by then
7) it's just the way that this is set up
8) in other words, notable odds of price exceeding that hilight above exists

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NOTES 4 - We have GOOD ODDS of getting a spike higher to 1985-1987 by 9 PM ET.
1) first consider wide view for trend lines:

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2) see that line coming down from May 2080 high in chart above?
3) we are there again second time in 5 days

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4. for chat above:

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5) thats the zoom in so you can see the other 2 lines in play

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6) see the line around 2040 in the middle of nowhere?
7) that's the current turn shadow for 200 to 240 days
8) the rest is easy

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9) here is yesterday's 54 hour and 27 hour waves vs. what I thought:

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10) for chart above: both are early vs forecast
11) but we only know that NOW, bc it stopped going down and went sideways

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12) here's why this spot matters so much

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13) dang it, I gotta get back to work (I have a job)
14) will pick up later from here

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7/31 8:01 PM ET 1963.XX
1) this spot is really important
2) bulls should come in here
3) and push this to 1985 in 8 hours
4) we will know soon if they do or not

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5) meaning if they do, they need to do it soon
6) before micro trends turn bearish
7) this should be step by step move up (on 11-min bars)
8) not hard spike up out of nowhere

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7/31 9:06 PM ET
1) bulls running out of time to move
2) while they have 5-6 hours window...
3) they have to move up that entire time
4) if nothing happens in another 60 min....
5) odds will start to favor 1955-1957 within 16 hours from now
6) or about 60-90 MIN BEFORE NEW YORK CLOSES TOMORROW
7) that would be last call to get on the train

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8) continuing at 9:17 PM ET
9) another ratio says check down to 1957-58 NOW... then slowly climb to 1975 by...
10) 2:30 PM ET tomorrow then one more check down to 1968
11) whatever the case maybe it seems like bears are running out of time to...
12) change the out come for 8/15-8/16

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7/31 11:13 PM ET, FWIW, it looks like this now:

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a) continuing with chart above at 11:18 PM ET
b) some one ask me how can it vary so much in a matter of hours?
c) I've answered this before, that the only way to get it all right is to watch ALL THE TIME
d) with that said price is right inside first and second boxes (in chart at top)
e) and is on target at this time for first 10 boxes
f) good night

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NOTES 5 - 8/1, 3:19 AM ET, ENTRY 5/9, 1955.XX

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NOTES 6 - CLARIFYING ENTRY 5/9
1) purchased 2 GCV23 8/15 2020 calls for $4.0 each (so 2x400=800)
2) GCV23 (OCTOBER FUTURES CONTRACT) is trading $18 higher than spot
3) meaning 2020 call is effectively 2002 spot call
4) do I have conviction that we hit 2080 by 8/8?
5) yes
6) expected return 20:1 or better if 2080 hits

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7) meaning 2080-2002= 78
8) but time value on 8/8 would make 8/15 call at least 84
9) so really 84:4 would be 21:21
10) just playing with numbers
11) meanwhile, at 3:37 AM ET, there's only 11 hours left until...
12) bulls take over for good

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13) typo in NOTES 6, part 9), it should be 21:1 (not 21:21)

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NOTES 7- 8/1, 9:47 AM ET, ENTRY 6/9 (so two thirds), 1946.xx
1) I will stop here with the entries
2) based on price action since last Wednesday...
3) HARD STOP IS 1940

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N0TES 8 - 12:15 PM ET, MAKE OR BREAK TIME
1) bears keep selling breaking previous 1941 low
2) this is bad
3) 1940 is a hard stop
4) we are supposed to hold here and spike up hard
5) but short trends are starting to dissolve the "spike up setup"
6) while this doesn't change my thesis for massive rally to 8/15.... yet
7) it is make or break time for next 150 minutes or until 2:45 PM ET

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TUESDAY, 8/1, 12:56 PM ET, 100 MINUTES FROM BULL TAKEOVER, IN THEORY

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1) based on everything I know...
2) this is now the perfect moment to go long, with respect to risk/reward
3) in chart above:
4) that's 11-min bars for price action from now to through 8/8
5) combined regressions from all time to 3-day are now in rally mode
6) but 1940 is a hard floor...
7) under 1940 I can't imagine what price should do, besides keep going down I mean

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8) SO MY 3 LAST ENTRIES ARE HERE AT 1943.13
9) that's 7/9, 8/9, and 9/9

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10) here's wthe break down for previous chart:

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11) continuing at 1:20 PM ET with chart above:
12) so thats it...
13) if this fails, we will know before midnight
14) in fact, we should be around 1935 by 9 PM ET TONIGHT
15) if this works, we will know for sure in 20 hours (9 AM ET TOMORROW)
16) hard stop 1940
17) what if it goes under and goes back up?
18) I haven't seen it do that in "this type" of a setup AND THEN GO ALL THE WAY UP
19) while anything's possible, it would have to be "stick save situation"
20) where the spike up has to be stronger than the spike down to correct "wave damage"

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21) so it's 1:32 PM ET
22) my method says 60 minutes until spike up
23) if it doesn't move up soon after 2:30 PM ET... odds of breaking under 1940 start to climb

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8/1, 1:41 PM ET, 1941.xx
1) if bears win here, obviously they will try to push 1906
2) but it also means that LRC waves only work if you watch ALL THE TIME (already proven this anyway)
3) and there's not a lot value beyond that to this type of forecasting
4) I can quit this project finally and be happy about it
5) have a good rest of your Tuesday

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8/1, 4:30 PM ET, 1944.XX I think I have the route.
1) I really can't push past this one
2) this is updated w/ reconciliation from and older IRL
3) I will publish soon
4) it's slower and lower, but still going to give you bang for your buck

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4:58 PM ET 8/1 THIS POST HAS ENDED: HERE IS NEXT ONE AND LAST ONE: