Gold on Short-term crossroads / Buying pressure visible

2022年8月25日

Gold's general commentary: Gold has so far managed to break above the key Resistance cluster #1,752.80 - #1,755.80 (Xau-Usd Spot prices) pivot line of #1,727.80 - #1,730.80 Weekly Low’s and is Technically forming a Top (temporary or not) which can represent the Lower High’s Upper zone on the Hourly 4 chart that started after the mid-August Low’s. Hourly 1 chart is turning Neutral which is Natural reaction on peak formations and I personally expect (within a Weekly timezone) pullback towards the Daily chart’s Medium-term Support zone near #1,730.80 extension, which should be turned into a stiff Resistance if current Bearish fractal is to be transferred on the Medium-term aswell. Then my Target will be #1,678.80 Lower Low’s extension. Note that currently it is the DX which keeps Gold this Low, as Bond Yields on the other hand found the strong Support and engaged recovery candles towards local peak.


Technical analysis: My #1,755.80 pivot didn't held as Gold should remain under heavy pressure towards #1,730.80 Support fractal upon the Jackson Hole news release but rebounded immediately to close the Daily chart’s candle back inside the Neutral Rectangle. This maintains my Neutral to Bearish perspective the same way the Daily timeframe remains Bearish. On the Medium-term the Fed's hike structure and market sentiment in general should be Bearish for Gold (my Medium-term Target is intact and is seen Trading near #1,678.80 Lower Low’s extension) but since I didn’t position myself already, best option at the moment is to await for the Price-action to break below the Daily chart’s #1,750.80 psychological mark to confirm the Selling breakout as the DX was constantly Trading on gains. This is because I believe Gold is more closely tied to the DX lately and should Trade on the opposite direction once it moves. From Bond Yields perspective aswell, Gold remains Bearish.


My position: I am still waiting opportunity to re-Sell Gold towards #1,730.80 extension first, then #1,700.80 local Low's. I am still not interested in Buying, however if the Price-action closes the session above #1,760.80 Resistance, then #1,778.80 extension remains an decent possibility. #1,752.80 is my first Support line, ahead of #1,740.80 extension which may be filled Intra-day if DX reverses the Intra-day trend.