Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD July 9, 2025

🔻 Momentum Analysis
D1 timeframe: Momentum is approaching the oversold zone and may reverse upwards today or tomorrow.

H4 timeframe: Momentum is already in the oversold zone. The two momentum lines are converging, signaling weakening downward pressure and a potential reversal.

🌀 Elliott Wave Structure
The price level around 3318 (previous buy zone) failed to hold, despite a ~100-pip bounce before continuing to decline.

Currently, price is nearing the lower boundary of a contracting triangle – a typical abcde corrective pattern.

Based on the current wave structure:
- Wave d (purple) appears to be complete.
- Price is now likely forming wave e, expected to end near 3279, which coincides with the triangle’s bottom support.

If the pattern holds, a strong breakout above the upper triangle boundary is expected once wave e completes.

However, note: the formation of a triangle during a corrective wave often signals that the uptrend is nearing its end in the longer term.

📌 Trading Plan
Given the complex 3-wave structure typical of triangles, risk is elevated, so:

Trade with reduced position size, or
Preferably wait for a confirmed breakout above the triangle before entering.

Suggested Trade Setup:

✅ Buy Zone: 3280 – 3277

❌ Stop Loss: 3270

🎯 Take Profits:

TP1: 3309

TP2: 3342

TP3: 3390