Gold - Long

Down 20% from the August 2020 highs. We have been on the short side not bucking the trend. Fundamentally, in an environment of rising real rates, gold should decline. That said, technically, in this chart, we are near a bottom of a channel where we may expect a bounce. Note the term (MAY EXPECT) because this is most definitely a counter-trend trade and should only be made with caution and a stop loss if using leverage. In a period of rising real rates, rising commodity prices and having seen this inflation for the past 6 months, this period could draw to a close in favor of stagflation or deflation in Q3 and or Q4. This would send gold higher, the USD higher, commodities lower or backing off their huge run, and stocks could be in for a world of hurt at some point.

In any case, this is a reasonable spot to take a shot on the long side with caution in gold.

註釋

Yep, it was a good spot

註釋

Im going to take half the $$ off the table now

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