XAUUSD OUTLOOK FOR 11/11/2024
已更新
1. Key Levels Highlighted:
Major Resistance Level: $2,790.08 – This is marked as the "INVLADATION WAVE 0," indicating the point at which the wave structure is no longer valid.
Bearish Order Block (OB): Around $2,722.29 – Serves as potential resistance, highlighted for observing potential price rejection.
Support Level: $2,612.61 – This is the "WAVE 1" level, indicating a strong support zone that could serve as a reversal point during a corrective phase.
Fibonacci Levels:
0.618 Retracement: $2,722.29, coinciding with the OB, suggesting confluence for resistance.
0.5 Retracement: $2,701.36 – A common retracement level that could act as a potential support or reversal point.
2. Updated Explanatory Style for Outlook:
Current Phase Overview:
The analysis indicates that XAU/USD is completing Phase D of the Wyckoff Distribution. This phase usually precedes a markdown in price, aligning with the MARK DOWN (8H) label.
Wave 5 Completion: The chart shows Wave 5 has potentially concluded, signaling a shift towards a corrective phase.
Potential Price Movements:
Bearish Scenario: The presence of a bearish OB near $2,722.29 and key Fibonacci retracement levels suggest that XAU/USD might face significant resistance here. If price rejects these levels, a continuation downward is possible, targeting the $2,612.61 support.
Bullish Scenario: Should price break above the $2,790.08 resistance (Wave 0), this invalidates the bearish outlook, signaling potential continuation to the upside.
Liquidity Analysis:
The notation "LOW RESISTANCE LIQUIDITY RUN" suggests minimal resistance if price breaks certain support levels, which could accelerate a move downward.
3. Outlook Summary:
Bearish Bias: The chart suggests a cautious outlook with a potential markdown phase. Observing price action at the bearish OB ($2,722.29) and the $2,701.36 Fibonacci level is crucial for confirmation.
Corrective Wave Expectations: If Wave 5's completion holds true, a corrective structure (likely ABC) could emerge, pulling prices toward the lower support region around $2,612.61.
4. Key Takeaways and Trading Tips:
Watch for Confirmation: Before entering a trade, look for strong rejections or breakouts at the highlighted OB and Fibonacci levels.
Risk Management: Place stop losses above $2,790.08 if entering short positions to protect against invalidation of the current wave count.
Monitor Volume: Higher volume at these resistance points could strengthen the case for a reversal.
Major Resistance Level: $2,790.08 – This is marked as the "INVLADATION WAVE 0," indicating the point at which the wave structure is no longer valid.
Bearish Order Block (OB): Around $2,722.29 – Serves as potential resistance, highlighted for observing potential price rejection.
Support Level: $2,612.61 – This is the "WAVE 1" level, indicating a strong support zone that could serve as a reversal point during a corrective phase.
Fibonacci Levels:
0.618 Retracement: $2,722.29, coinciding with the OB, suggesting confluence for resistance.
0.5 Retracement: $2,701.36 – A common retracement level that could act as a potential support or reversal point.
2. Updated Explanatory Style for Outlook:
Current Phase Overview:
The analysis indicates that XAU/USD is completing Phase D of the Wyckoff Distribution. This phase usually precedes a markdown in price, aligning with the MARK DOWN (8H) label.
Wave 5 Completion: The chart shows Wave 5 has potentially concluded, signaling a shift towards a corrective phase.
Potential Price Movements:
Bearish Scenario: The presence of a bearish OB near $2,722.29 and key Fibonacci retracement levels suggest that XAU/USD might face significant resistance here. If price rejects these levels, a continuation downward is possible, targeting the $2,612.61 support.
Bullish Scenario: Should price break above the $2,790.08 resistance (Wave 0), this invalidates the bearish outlook, signaling potential continuation to the upside.
Liquidity Analysis:
The notation "LOW RESISTANCE LIQUIDITY RUN" suggests minimal resistance if price breaks certain support levels, which could accelerate a move downward.
3. Outlook Summary:
Bearish Bias: The chart suggests a cautious outlook with a potential markdown phase. Observing price action at the bearish OB ($2,722.29) and the $2,701.36 Fibonacci level is crucial for confirmation.
Corrective Wave Expectations: If Wave 5's completion holds true, a corrective structure (likely ABC) could emerge, pulling prices toward the lower support region around $2,612.61.
4. Key Takeaways and Trading Tips:
Watch for Confirmation: Before entering a trade, look for strong rejections or breakouts at the highlighted OB and Fibonacci levels.
Risk Management: Place stop losses above $2,790.08 if entering short positions to protect against invalidation of the current wave count.
Monitor Volume: Higher volume at these resistance points could strengthen the case for a reversal.
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