Keeping my Selling order / Gold leans more to the Bearish side

2022年7月12日

Gold's general commentary: As I anticipated, DX extended upwards momentum and it is showcasing huge strength which should push Gold Lower aggressively (E.U. session was idle while U.S. session may deliver movement) while the correction on Bond Yields is aswell ignored by Gold. #1,730.80 - 1,732.80 is the Technical Support on Daily chart and Naturally as long as it holds (ignoring the over-night spike which delivered Spinning Top candle), the bias is Neutral within Neutral Rectangle within #1,732.80 - #1,752.80 belt. If broken to the downside, Medium-term Sellers arise and extend the momentum towards the #1,678.80 - #1,682.80 Lower Low’s Lower zone. I am expecting aggressive takedown any minute now.


Technical analysis: The Daily chart has stabilized Technically within Neutral Rectangle after #2 successive candle closings below the Daily chart’s Resistance zone of #1,752.80 - #1,755.80. As each session goes by and the more Resistance fractal hold (maintains strong durability), the Price-action is more likely to continue the Selling sequence towards #1,700.80 psychological barrier (former Resistance zone) and way below, especially if the reports continue to exceed expectations and this is why DX numbers are critical. My Selling model is intact, aswell my estimations are pointing that fair Technical Price of Gold should be below #1,730.80 - #1,732.80 Support zone already. It is important to note that #1,720.80 - #1,732.80 Long-term Support belt aggressively rejected every downside attempt since March #29, #2021. Year and current fractal won’t be invalidated without a serious cause. A break below #1,730.80 - #1,732.80 Short-term Support has a downside risk near #1,700.80 barrier. It is quite odd that Gold isn't considerably Lower based on the Bullish patterns on the DX as it appears that DX strength last week weighed more. Taking all aspects into consideration, Buying is very limited and Trading will most likely be performed below #1,700.80 psychological barrier within #2 sessions. Regarding the DX chart, Price-action is dangerously approaching the Medium-term Resistance zone and that development alone is keeping Gold heavily pressured since all panic capital from Gold is now fleeing to world’s most know currency of U.S. Dollar.


Fundamental analysis: Current Fundamental environment is not Gold friendly and it is not going in Buyer's favour certainly. With DX dangerously approaching #110.180 Medium-term Resistance, fractal which can pierce the trendline on U.S. Dollar's bigger charts (started on November #1,985. Year, peaked on December #2,002. Year aswell) and if #110 Resistance breaks, it may skyrocket the DX which will heavily pressure Gold regarding the Long-term. U.S. Dollar is Trading on huge gains as Investors are parking their capital fleeing from Euro which is on record Low's, Lowest level since November #2,002. Year. All this mix displays very Bearish picture on Gold.


My position: As it is evident, market speculators are manually preventing full downside oscillation towards #1,678.80 level (due Oversold Technicals on Gold) however, I do not believe that they will manage to do it for much longer. DX is attracting all capital from other asset classes and most likely will continue soaring, where Buying Gold on such Fundamentally Bearish bias is not a clever idea. My Selling order is intact as I expect my Target to be realized within #2 sessions (#1,738.80 represents my entry point).