GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Nov 04 - Nov 08]
This week, after rising to 2,790 USD/oz, 
XAUUSD then continuously dropped sharply to 2,733 USD/oz and closed the week at 2,736 USD/oz.
According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US's October non-farm payrolls (NFP) report showed that the country only created 12,000 jobs, significantly lower than the forecast of 100,000 jobs due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. recent storms. Although the US economy created fewer jobs than expected, the country's unemployment rate in October remained unchanged at 4.1%.
Meanwhile, wage inflation increased. Specifically, average hourly earnings increased 0.4% last month, higher than the forecast of 0.3%. In particular, the US's basic Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index for October - the FED's favorite inflation measure - remained at a high level of 2.7%, unchanged from the level of July and October.
All of the above economic data show that the FED is in a difficult position when production activities decline sharply, the labor market weakens, but inflation remains continuously high.
However, many forecasts are likely that the FED will still cut interest rates by another 0.25% next week, but will cautiously announce the direction of interest rate cuts in the next meetings.
In addition to the FED meeting, next week there will also be the US Presidential election on November 5. According to forecasts of many experts, it is likely that Donald Trump will be re-elected as US President. If Mr. Trump becomes US President in the next term, he will impose strong tariffs on imported goods as promised during the election campaign. This will push inflation up, forcing the FED to delay interest rate cuts, and may even have to raise interest rates again.
Thus, next week's gold price is at risk of being double-impacted by the FED meeting and the US presidential election.
📌Technically, in the H4 chart, gold price still shows a clear uptrend when the price trades above the EMA89 moving average. Next week, if gold prices still trade above the 2720 threshold, we can expect gold prices to continue to maintain an upward trend. In case the price will return to a downward adjustment cycle if the 2710 support zone is broken, correspondingly in the H1 chart, the gold price forms a head and shoulders model. If this model is correct, the gold price will find its way back around mark 2650.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2.700 – 2.710 – 2.720USD
Resistance: 2.786 – 2.768 – 2.745USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2776 - 2774⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2780
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2649 - 2651⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2645
XAUUSD then continuously dropped sharply to 2,733 USD/oz and closed the week at 2,736 USD/oz.According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US's October non-farm payrolls (NFP) report showed that the country only created 12,000 jobs, significantly lower than the forecast of 100,000 jobs due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. recent storms. Although the US economy created fewer jobs than expected, the country's unemployment rate in October remained unchanged at 4.1%.
Meanwhile, wage inflation increased. Specifically, average hourly earnings increased 0.4% last month, higher than the forecast of 0.3%. In particular, the US's basic Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index for October - the FED's favorite inflation measure - remained at a high level of 2.7%, unchanged from the level of July and October.
All of the above economic data show that the FED is in a difficult position when production activities decline sharply, the labor market weakens, but inflation remains continuously high.
However, many forecasts are likely that the FED will still cut interest rates by another 0.25% next week, but will cautiously announce the direction of interest rate cuts in the next meetings.
In addition to the FED meeting, next week there will also be the US Presidential election on November 5. According to forecasts of many experts, it is likely that Donald Trump will be re-elected as US President. If Mr. Trump becomes US President in the next term, he will impose strong tariffs on imported goods as promised during the election campaign. This will push inflation up, forcing the FED to delay interest rate cuts, and may even have to raise interest rates again.
Thus, next week's gold price is at risk of being double-impacted by the FED meeting and the US presidential election.
📌Technically, in the H4 chart, gold price still shows a clear uptrend when the price trades above the EMA89 moving average. Next week, if gold prices still trade above the 2720 threshold, we can expect gold prices to continue to maintain an upward trend. In case the price will return to a downward adjustment cycle if the 2710 support zone is broken, correspondingly in the H1 chart, the gold price forms a head and shoulders model. If this model is correct, the gold price will find its way back around mark 2650.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2.700 – 2.710 – 2.720USD
Resistance: 2.786 – 2.768 – 2.745USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2776 - 2774⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2780
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2649 - 2651⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2645
註釋
The results of the US Presidential election will be announced next week, the movement of the USD and the policy meeting of the US Federal Reserve (FED)... will be factors affecting the trend of gold prices.
In the short term, gold prices may cool down after a period of hot growth, but the outlook for the precious metal at the end of the year and early 2025 is still forecast to be positive.
註釋
註釋
The upcoming US election will have a profound impact on the US and world economy. Ms. Kamala Harris's victory may bring some policy changes, but will mainly maintain a stable growth trajectory for the US and the world until 2025. On the contrary, the election of Mr. Donald Trump could bring change. Major changes in fiscal, regulatory, trade and immigration, creating a variety of economic scenarios.註釋
The DXY index is showing more and more obvious weakness in the run-up to the US Presidential election, although selling pressure seems to be somewhat limited compared to the beginning of the day.註釋
Gold prices stabilized on Monday (November 4), as uncertainty over the US presidential election loomed with markets predicting the possibility of a disputed outcome and political tensions, while investors Investors are also closely monitoring the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy meeting this week.註釋
Gold increased to 2,743 USD/oz as USD weakened註釋
ISM Services PMI: 56.0 (forecast: 53.8, previous: 54.9)註釋
Gold price (XAU/USD) dropped more than 1% to $2,710 in Wednesday's trading session, under pressure from the USD's surge after the victory of Republican candidate Donald Trump in the US presidential election. 註釋
Gold price is close to 2,650 USD/oz
The lowest level of the day that gold reached was about 2,652 USD/oz
註釋
World gold prices "plunged" and dropped more than 3% yesterday due to pressure from the recovery of the greenback after US media reported that Republican candidate Donald Trump won the election. US President 2024.
Accordingly, the dollar rose sharply as traders bet that the prospect of higher tariffs under Mr. Trump could keep interest rates high for longer, putting pressure on gold.
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