XAU/USD Weekly Update — July 14, 2025

⌛Timeframe: [4H]
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📆 Date: July 14, 2025
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🎯 Weekly Bias: Mildly Bullish — elevated risk, cautious momentum




🔎 Market Overview:

🛡️ Safe‑haven demand surging:
Renewed 30% tariffs on EU, Mexico, Canada have pushed investors into gold, lifting prices to a 3-week high.

📉 Weak USD & inflation hedge:
A softer U.S. dollar, under pressure from dovish Fed speculation, continues to support gold. A predicted September rate cut further boosts gold’s appeal.

🏦 Central bank accumulation:
Q1 2025 saw record demand from central banks (≈244 tonnes), with many reallocating reserves toward gold for geopolitical and de-dollarization reasons.

📈 YTD performance standout:
Gold is up ~27% this year, leading other assets. Bullish technical indicators like tightening Bollinger Bands and sustained MACD support continuation.



🌀 Market Sentiment:


🔽 Exchange reserves continue dropping:
Indicative of increased HODLing and lower upcoming sell pressure.

🧠 Sentiment firmly bullish:
Analysts highlight risk‑off bias; gold remains favored amid trade tensions.

🤝 ETF inflows & institutional buying:
Strong flows through gold ETFs and central bank buying reflect ongoing structural support.




🔧 Technical Analysis:

📊 Weekly Movement: +1.9% weekly gain, now at $3,367.

✅ Key Levels:

🔻 Resistance: $3,374 → $3,400

🔺 Support: $3,350 → $3,331

🟢 Signals: Mild bearish RSI divergence hints at short-term pause

🟢Weekly Bias: Mildly Bullish — momentum favored, but caution amid technical divergence.

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⚠️ Risk Reminder: For educational purposes only — not financial advice. Utilize prudent risk management.

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