看多

XAUUSD Up according to plan after NFP!

The price of gold has increased to the $1,830 area, with the yield of the 10-year US Treasury benchmark falling below 4.8% after initially rising to 4.9% in response to the US September jobs report, giving a boost to XAU/USD. The next directional move of the gold price will depend on the outcome of the US NFP report. From a technical perspective, the daily setup appears mixed in the short term, with a bearish cross confirmation countering any potential for a rebound in oversold Relative Strength Index (RSI) conditions. The 100-day Moving Average (DMA) crossed below the 200 DMA on a daily closing basis on Wednesday, confirming a bearish crossover. On the upside, if the recovery holds, gold buyers will target the previously supportive-turned-resistance level at $1,850, in case the strong resistance near $1,830 breaks. Furthermore, the gold price could challenge bearish commitments at the September 28 and 29 highs of $1,880. Alternatively, the gold price needs to find acceptance below the crucial support at the $1,810 level, where the March 8 low is situated. The $1,800 threshold will be the level to surpass for gold sellers, opening the path towards the psychological level of $1,750. The gold price is temporarily gaining ground, as the US dollar has entered a consolidation phase after two consecutive days of correction from an 11-month high. The subdued tone around the US dollar could be attributed to a slightly positive mood in the Asian session this Friday, despite mixed developments in the Chinese property market. Shares of Sunac China Holdings Ltd. surged after the property giant obtained approval for a debt restructuring plan. Meanwhile, shares of China Evergrande Group fell by over 10%, limiting gains in Asian indices. However, Hong Kong's Hang Seng is rallying 2% for the day. The extended decline in oil prices combined with a pause in the surge of US Treasury bond yields is providing some comfort to investors. However, they refrain from placing any fresh directional bets on the gold price and the US dollar ahead of the release of US labor market data. Economists are expecting the US economy to have added 170,000 jobs in September, slowing down from the 180,000 additions reported in August. The unemployment rate is expected to be slightly lower, dropping from 3.8% to 3.7% in September, while average hourly earnings are likely to rise by 4.3% year on year in the reported period, similar to the previous reading. Following a much smaller-than-expected US private job growth, as reported by ADP, of 89,000 in September, downside risks remain intact for the headline NFP number, which could further weigh on the November rate hike expectations by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), in light of loosening labor market conditions. In the case of a disappointing US NFP report, the US dollar correction could gain additional traction alongside US Treasury bond yields, bolstering recovery attempts in the gold price towards $1,850 and beyond. Conversely, if US labor market data, including wage inflation, suggest that the Fed can opt for one more rate hike by year-end, the US dollar could resume its uptrend at the expense of the non-interest-bearing gold price. Additionally, observe a new demand area from 1800 to 1820, in which I expect a retracement before a continuation of the price's long direction. Let me know what you think, leave a like and comment. Have a great weekend everyone from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.