Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD – July 8, 2025

🔎 Momentum Analysis
On the daily (D1) timeframe, momentum is currently declining. At the same time, the 4H momentum is showing signs of reversing downward. This suggests a likely short-term corrective decline, which provides a basis for projecting potential Elliott Wave patterns.

🌀 Elliott Wave Structure
On the 4H chart, I currently see two main possible scenarios:

Scenario 1: Contracting Triangle Correction (abcde – purple)
This scenario assumes a contracting triangle correction labeled abcde in purple.
The market appears to be in wave d (purple), which is unfolding as a wxy corrective structure. Currently, it is likely in wave y.
The projected target for the end of wave y is between 3393 – 3402.
However, due to the declining momentum, I expect a short-term pullback to the 3318 – 3321 region before price resumes upward to complete wave d.

Scenario 2: Larger WXY Correction
In this case:
Wave W has completed as a standard 3-wave abc.
Wave X has also completed as a double zigzag.
Wave Y appears to be forming a small contracting triangle abcde in red.

Currently, the price is being compressed between the upper and lower boundaries of the red triangle, suggesting that it is in the final wave e.

In this scenario, the projected retracement also aligns with the 3318 – 3321 zone. After completing wave e, price is expected to break out strongly above the upper boundary of the red triangle.

✅ Strategic Conclusion
Both scenarios point to a confluence zone at 3318 – 3321, making this a key potential buying area. Two trading approaches can be considered:

Aggressive Entry: Buy within the 3318 – 3321 range.

Conservative Entry: Wait for a confirmed breakout above the red triangle before entering a long position.

📈 Suggested Trade Plan
Buy Zone: 3318 – 3321
Stop Loss: 3308
Take Profit 1: 3342
Take Profit 2: 3362
Take Profit 3: 3393