Gold still looks cheap, when we look at it this way

2017年9月8日

Beware the appearance of the wave lengths as this is a semi-log chart.
As far as historic data allows it, I can count the rallies as impulsive. From the bottom of the chart (251.90) up to I (1920.70), there are $ 1’668.80. Multiplying this by 1.618 ($ 2’700), and adding them to the bottom of II (1046.33), we find a minimum target for wave III at $ 3’746 !
On a shorter term basis let’s do the same to find the minimum target for wave 3. As wave 1 equals $ 328.71, multiplying this by 1.618 (531.85) and adding them to the bottom of wave 2 (1122.57), we find 1’654.
Buying now at 1’346 with stop/loss at 1’269 (below top of what I consider to be a wave i) with target at 3’690. Once 1’654 is reached, trail the stop/loss from 1’269 to breakeven (the top of wave 1 at 1’375 shouldn’t be overlapped by the future wave 4).
Initial reward/risk ratio close to 31. Once the stop/loss is trailed there will be no risk of loss anymore.
So people still not long Gold don’t have missed the train yet, there is still plenty of potential upwards I think. Better to buy it physically and vs USD though as safe haven. As the proverb says: invest 10 % of your portfolio and hope it goes down. Of course it is not real to consider selling on stop/loss a physical position, only because of the spread, so start with CFDs.
If the following levels are taken out, my scenario will take shape: 1’532 and 1’921.
Start switching your CFDs for physical as this would not be a good sign for the economy.