XAU/USD fluctuates between 1,275 and 1,280
As there were no breaking news yesterday, recovery of the buck was expectedly neutralized by combined support level set up by the 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs together with the weekly PP at 1,273.35. In the meantime, lowering interest for safe haven assets as well as existence of the monthly PP at 1,279.41 did not allow the pair to make a fully-fledged rebound either. For this reason, the rate is expected to continue moving in this limbo until traders receive a proper signal that will allow making a decisive breakout. Most probably such signal will come from China, where Donald Trump is expected to announce conclusion of different deals that would allow narrowing the gap in the US trade balance. In that case, the buck has a chance to reach the bottom edge of the channel in the next one-two days.
As there were no breaking news yesterday, recovery of the buck was expectedly neutralized by combined support level set up by the 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs together with the weekly PP at 1,273.35. In the meantime, lowering interest for safe haven assets as well as existence of the monthly PP at 1,279.41 did not allow the pair to make a fully-fledged rebound either. For this reason, the rate is expected to continue moving in this limbo until traders receive a proper signal that will allow making a decisive breakout. Most probably such signal will come from China, where Donald Trump is expected to announce conclusion of different deals that would allow narrowing the gap in the US trade balance. In that case, the buck has a chance to reach the bottom edge of the channel in the next one-two days.
Pressure of the 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs prevailed over the combined resistance formed by the 61.8% retracement level and the monthly PP. As a result, the exchange rate approached and tested the upper trend-line of a large ascending channel. Although the first attempt was not successful, the pair is expected to continue climbing to the top, using support provided by the above moving averages plus the weekly R1 located at the 1,281.00 level.
There is a need to notice that on daily chart the pair faces no barriers on its way up until the weekly R2 at 1,291.92. This fact as well as the aggregate market sentiment, which is 63% bullish, suggests that the rate has a high probability to breakout from the channel up, instead of making a rebound near the 1,288.00 mark.