Gold – Reminiscences of 2019

Gold is right now showing similar behaviour like it did before its big breakout in 2019.

1) Big sideways consolidation
2013 – 2019 ~6 years
2020 – 2023 ~3 years

2) Steep decline followed by a full reversal to test the upper zone of the consolidation
04/2018 – 02/2019 ~10 month
03/2022 – 05/2023 ~12 month

3) After hitting the upper zone of the consolidation, a relatively mild correction to the ~38,2% fib retracement which mainly unfolded through time and not through price

Sadly, td does not have the option to overlay different timeframes or maybe I just did not find it.

After this 3-year sideways consolidation and 5-month correction a lot of frustration has built, as was the case in 2019. Many people calling for a triple top. This is the potential fuel for a rally and with the dollar and rates likely turning this could change quickly. Obviously, this base is not quite as long (3 vs 6 years) but nevertheless a breakout would generate good upside.
Gold has closed the gap @1867 yesterday, tagged mid monthly Bollinger band, crashed weekly and daily Bollinger bands, and is oversold on daily. 1865 is strong past support zone. As is with silver, quarter end selling might be done. This could prove a good entry point.