XAU/USD (Gold) 30-Minute Chart Analysis – February 27

**1. Market Structure Analysis**
- **Break of Structure (BOS):** Previous BOS points indicate a **downtrend continuation**.
- **Change of Character (CHoCH):** Multiple CHoCH events suggest minor retracements within the dominant bearish trend.
- **Liquidity Zones:**
- **Premium Zone (~$2,925 - $2,931):** Strong resistance, price failed to hold above.
- **Discount Zone (~$2,880 - $2,885):** Key support area where buyers might step in.
- **Equilibrium (~$2,907):** The price is well below equilibrium, confirming bearish momentum.

**2. Key Levels Identified**
- **Premium Supply Zone (~$2,925 - $2,931):** Rejection confirms this as strong resistance.
- **Weak Low (~$2,884 - $2,879):** Bears might target this liquidity.
- **Discount Demand Zone (~$2,874 - $2,885):** Possible reversal area for buyers.

**3. Expected Scenarios & Probability**
1. **Bearish Breakdown – 70% Probability**
- **Reason:** Price is hovering around PDL (Previous Day's Low) and near weak low liquidity. If it breaks, expect further downside.
- **Target:** $2,874 - $2,870.
- **Confirmation:** A break and close below **$2,885**.

2. **Bullish Reversal from Discount Zone – 30% Probability**
- **Reason:** If price taps into **PWL ($2,874 - $2,879)** and shows bullish signs, we may see a retracement.
- **Target:** $2,900 - $2,907 (equilibrium).
- **Confirmation:** Strong bullish reaction at the discount zone.

**4. Trading Strategy**
- **Sell Setup:** If price breaks below **$2,885** with bearish confirmation.
- **Entry:** Below $2,885.
- **SL:** Above $2,900.
- **TP1:** $2,879.
- **TP2:** $2,874.
- **Risk-Reward:** 1:3.

- **Buy Setup:** If price shows bullish reaction at **$2,874 - $2,879**.
- **Entry:** Around $2,878.
- **SL:** Below $2,870.
- **TP1:** $2,900.
- **TP2:** $2,907.
- **Risk-Reward:** 1:4.

**Final Thoughts**
- **Probability of bearish continuation:** **70%** (favoring downside move to $2,874).
- **Probability of bullish reversal:** **30%** (bounce from discount zone to $2,900+).
- **Watch for confirmation before entering trades!**