FED = FOMC
FEDM = Minutes
Market has forgotten about next week's FED meeting last week. Next week Monday and Tuesday it's time to focus on the rate decision again.
In January and March gold printed its daily cycle low at the FOMC. So I see a good chance we are printing the DCL again around that date.
Will they hike again?
I don't think so... The French election is a risk factor again for the EU and we saw last year before the Brexit the FED didn't touch the rates. Yellen mentioned at the FOMC meeting in 2016 June the possibility of a Brittish exit from the EU is enough stress for the strong USD , no need to make the markets more nervous with a rate hike.
So next Wednesday it will be the same : they will not touch the rates before the french elections.
What will happen to gold at the weekend is a different story. ( I'm 100% sure France will not leave the EU even if Le Pen wins...)
The last 3 days of the week ended with gold crawling on the 240 SMA . That moving average was important in the last few years.
At the beginning of next week gold should head lower and break below the 240 SMA (green), the 200 SMA (red) and 50 EMA (blue) . My minimum target is the 100 EMA (purple) at 1240$.
In the ideal scenario price should get close to the 500 SMA (orange) just like at the last 2 FED meetings. I don't think we will be able to break below it but we might get very close to that moving average before the next bounce.
Pattern wise it looks like a breakout of 1260 and a testback of that breakout. But as I'm watching my cycles it will be a false breakout .
MACD printing divergencies and turning down. The RSI almost got overbought. It's turning up but it needs to go deep into oversold territory. So both indicators are showing that this decline is not over yet.
SHORT follow through idea. I don't recommend to short from here.
We are already short in gold from a better entry price.
FEDM = Minutes
Market has forgotten about next week's FED meeting last week. Next week Monday and Tuesday it's time to focus on the rate decision again.
In January and March gold printed its daily cycle low at the FOMC. So I see a good chance we are printing the DCL again around that date.
Will they hike again?
I don't think so... The French election is a risk factor again for the EU and we saw last year before the Brexit the FED didn't touch the rates. Yellen mentioned at the FOMC meeting in 2016 June the possibility of a Brittish exit from the EU is enough stress for the strong USD , no need to make the markets more nervous with a rate hike.
So next Wednesday it will be the same : they will not touch the rates before the french elections.
What will happen to gold at the weekend is a different story. ( I'm 100% sure France will not leave the EU even if Le Pen wins...)
The last 3 days of the week ended with gold crawling on the 240 SMA . That moving average was important in the last few years.
At the beginning of next week gold should head lower and break below the 240 SMA (green), the 200 SMA (red) and 50 EMA (blue) . My minimum target is the 100 EMA (purple) at 1240$.
In the ideal scenario price should get close to the 500 SMA (orange) just like at the last 2 FED meetings. I don't think we will be able to break below it but we might get very close to that moving average before the next bounce.
Pattern wise it looks like a breakout of 1260 and a testback of that breakout. But as I'm watching my cycles it will be a false breakout .
MACD printing divergencies and turning down. The RSI almost got overbought. It's turning up but it needs to go deep into oversold territory. So both indicators are showing that this decline is not over yet.
SHORT follow through idea. I don't recommend to short from here.
We are already short in gold from a better entry price.
評論:
If we compare gold and silver gold is lagging...
評論:
評論:
Once gold breaks down the 1260 level it will do violently.
I think today or tomorrow we will get this breakdown.
I think today or tomorrow we will get this breakdown.
評論:
I told you this is coming.
評論:
I close 50% of the position here at 1252$.
I will watch FOMC with 50% position.
I will watch FOMC with 50% position.
評論:
We are getting late in this daily cycle. If we don't print the bottom today or tomorrow we will go down into the ICL in this daily cycle...
But I think everybody will focus on the French elections so gold will pop after FOMC.
But I think everybody will focus on the French elections so gold will pop after FOMC.
評論:
Closing 25% at 1247$
評論:
Closed the rest at 1250
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