GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Jul 14 - Jul 18]

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This week, XAUUSD opened at $3,342/oz, dropped to $3,282/oz, but then rebounded sharply to close at $3,355/oz. The recovery was mainly driven by former President Trump's announcement of new tariffs ranging from 20% to 50% on imports from 22 countries, effective August 1st. Particularly, a 35% tariff on Canadian goods — a key U.S. trading partner — raised concerns about global trade stability and supply chains.

Trump also proposed 15–20% tariffs on most other trading partners, reigniting fears of global trade disruptions. At the same time, ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas continued to weigh on sentiment, despite U.S. diplomatic efforts showing little progress.

However, analysts note that gold still lacks strong momentum for a breakout. Trump's tariff threats may be more about negotiation leverage than triggering a full-blown trade war. Meanwhile, with the labor market recovering and inflation rising, the Fed is expected to maintain its neutral monetary policy, limiting short-term gold price movements.

Although geopolitical tensions remain (e.g., Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Hamas), the ceasefire between Israel and Iran has reduced gold’s geopolitical risk premium.

Looking ahead, key U.S. economic data next week — including CPI, PPI, and retail sales — will be closely watched. A strong June core CPI (0.4% or higher) could reduce the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September, strengthening the USD and pushing gold lower. Conversely, weaker inflation data could boost expectations of a rate cut, supporting gold prices.

GOLD continues to recover, tariff war changes unpredictably


📌In terms of technical analysis, gold prices next week may continue to adjust and accumulate. Accordingly, if they surpass the 3,370 USD/oz mark, gold prices next week will challenge the 3,400-3,450 USD/oz range. On the contrary, gold prices next week will adjust down to 3,285 USD/oz, or even 3,245 USD/oz.

Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 3,350 – 3,310 – 3,300USD
Resistance: 3,371 – 3,400 – 3,430USD


SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3435 - 3433⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3439

BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3329 - 3331⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3326
註釋
🔴Gold price exceeds 3370 USD/oz thanks to trade tensions, this week awaits "judgment" from US CPI

Today, gold prices continued to increase, reaching 3372.65 USD/oz - the highest level since late June, thanks to increased safe-haven flows after President Trump announced a 30% tax on EU and Mexican goods from August 1.
註釋
Back above $3,300, GOLD may remain neutral, tax focus
註釋
- Spot gold rose, reaching its highest level since June 23, surpassing $3,370 an ounce.

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