It looks like we have a triangle. Since they usually appear in wave B or 4, and it doesn't look like we are on a B wave, the corrective structure hints to a complex w,x,y minute wave.
The complex correction is part of minor wave 4, which has a termination level above 1600, where intermediate wave 3 is likely to complete.
After minor 3 top at 1557 markets corrected with a zig-zag pattern that has a 61.80% (b) wave and 100% (c) extension wave. With subminuette wave 4 nearly completed, subminuette wave 5 is likely to end near w minute low and form a flat pattern. Unless if minuette wave (a) extends below 1454 we could expect this pattern to form a different structure.
The completion of (a) should see prices moving higher for a (b) minuette and then slide lower. In case the decline to (a) stops at minute w low, (b)'s top would be the 1513. Anything above would invalidate the flat, but could indeed become an expanded flat (unlikely).
This opportunity would be invalidated above 1536. A break below 1480 would be an early sign of validation towards (a).
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
