MQP INFINITE REGRESSION #004-10, 8/3-8/27 CHANNEL & UPDATE
HERE IS WHAT I KNOW NOW:
1. Regression fractals are calling for 8/27-8/30 top.
2. Intermediate parallel channels are also calling for 8/26-9/1 TOP.
3. Jackson Hole conference is 8/28 (SATURDAY).
4. Bets on FED hawks/tapering/real rates spike late August/early September have been building for half a year.
5. VIX 50 calls expiring AFTER Jackson hole are catching a bid.
6. I would imagine that option delta ES/SPX/SPY puts expiring after 8/28 would clarify this, BUT HAVE NOT LOOKED.
7. Every and all angles of regressions I look at point to 1950 by 8/20, and 2070 by 9/6.
8. GDX doesn't look as good as it it did 2 weeks ag, showing erratic and weaker August spike, but doesn't disagree with gold thesis.
9. Yet GDX call options are meaningfully more expensive than GLD (GDX 40% spike pays less than GLD 15% spike.
10. Meaning August/Sep calls for GDX 40% spike pays LESS THAN GLD 15% SPIKE.
11. In this chart, buy blue and sell red boxes.
12. the lighter of two highlighted paths is the underdog, but can't be ruled out.
13. If you are not using leverage, 7/30 -8/5 are strong entries.
14. No more time, will update in #004-11.
1. Regression fractals are calling for 8/27-8/30 top.
2. Intermediate parallel channels are also calling for 8/26-9/1 TOP.
3. Jackson Hole conference is 8/28 (SATURDAY).
4. Bets on FED hawks/tapering/real rates spike late August/early September have been building for half a year.
5. VIX 50 calls expiring AFTER Jackson hole are catching a bid.
6. I would imagine that option delta ES/SPX/SPY puts expiring after 8/28 would clarify this, BUT HAVE NOT LOOKED.
7. Every and all angles of regressions I look at point to 1950 by 8/20, and 2070 by 9/6.
8. GDX doesn't look as good as it it did 2 weeks ag, showing erratic and weaker August spike, but doesn't disagree with gold thesis.
9. Yet GDX call options are meaningfully more expensive than GLD (GDX 40% spike pays less than GLD 15% spike.
10. Meaning August/Sep calls for GDX 40% spike pays LESS THAN GLD 15% SPIKE.
11. In this chart, buy blue and sell red boxes.
12. the lighter of two highlighted paths is the underdog, but can't be ruled out.
13. If you are not using leverage, 7/30 -8/5 are strong entries.
14. No more time, will update in #004-11.
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