Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD July 10, 2025

🌀 Elliott Wave Structure
On the H4 timeframe, price has returned to test the upper boundary of the converging triangle – currently acting as dynamic resistance. Based on the current wave count, wave e (purple) may have completed at the 3279 low, and price is potentially starting a breakout move.

👉 A confirmed breakout above the triangle would validate the end of the abcde correction and mark the beginning of a new upward trend.

🔋 Momentum Analysis
D1 timeframe: As forecasted yesterday, momentum is entering oversold territory and showing early signs of a reversal. This suggests that an upward trend could dominate over the next 5 days.

H4 timeframe: The two momentum lines are sticking together, indicating a weakening upward drive. A minor pullback may be needed before the next leg up. Key nearby resistance levels to watch are 3330 and 3342.

🎯 Key Price Levels & Validation Zones
The following support zones are crucial for identifying potential entries:

Support Zone 1: 3306 – 3308

Support Zone 2: 3294 – 3297

‼️ Important: A break below 3294 would invalidate the current wave structure, and a new count would be required.

📌 Trade Plan
Scenario 1 – Buy at higher support:

Buy Zone: 3308 – 3306
SL: 3303
TP1: 3342
TP2: 3366
TP3: 3390

Scenario 2 – Buy at deeper support (if stronger correction occurs):

Buy Zone: 3297 – 3294
SL: 3287
TP1: 3342
TP2: 3366
TP3: 3390

Scenario 3 – Safer option (breakout confirmation):

Wait for a breakout above the triangle, then enter on the retest (around 3325–3330)

SL: Based on structure formed during the retest
TP range: 3366 – 3390

📌 Preferred strategy: Wait for H4 to reach oversold or wait for a confirmed breakout and retest to enter safely in alignment with the new uptrend.