GOLD analysis week 30
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Fundamental analysis
Throughout the weekend, gold prices fell due to the strength of the US Dollar and profit-taking activities in the market. This week, the gold market ended up in a key price position again, testing key support at the initial price of $2,400/ounce.
Earlier, gold prices hit a record high this week on growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September.
Currently, gold prices are closely aligned with interest rate expectations and gold's climb to record highs also coincides with expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin its easing cycle in September. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, the market is pricing in a more than 98.1% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in September, increasing the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets such as Gold.
The only risk that could reverse gold's uptrend is a surprise increase in inflation, making investors doubt the possibility of interest rate cuts. However, recent data along with comments from the Fed suggest that the likelihood of inflation suddenly reaching the Fed's 2% target is very low.
Investors will have to wait until Friday for information on the June core Personal Consumer Expenditure Price Index (PCE). Last month, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation showed a 2.6% increase.
Besides inflation data, the market will also focus on US GDP data.
In terms of central bank activity, the Bank of Canada will announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday, with economists believing that weaker inflation data will pave the way for the central bank to cut interest rates. capacity.
Technical analysis
Gold prices showed that after reaching an all-time high last week, gold corrected downward for three consecutive sessions and ended the week at a key support point, the initial price of $2,400.
This $2,400 level is not only a base price but also a horizontal support and short-term trendline. While gold continues to sell below its initial price of $2,400, it is at risk of a deeper decline with the next target being the 34 moving average on the daily time frame.
However, with a close at $2,400, the technical uptrend has not yet reversed. Meanwhile, the long-term trend of gold is still completely towards the possibility of price increase.
As long as gold remains above the 2398 EMA, pullbacks should only be considered corrective moves, profit-taking activities in the market that do not change the main trend. Notable technical levels are listed as follows:
Support: 2392 - 2382 - 2371 - 2360 - 2352
Resistance: 2406 - 2420 - 2427 - 2436 - 2450 - 2467
Throughout the weekend, gold prices fell due to the strength of the US Dollar and profit-taking activities in the market. This week, the gold market ended up in a key price position again, testing key support at the initial price of $2,400/ounce.
Earlier, gold prices hit a record high this week on growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September.
Currently, gold prices are closely aligned with interest rate expectations and gold's climb to record highs also coincides with expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin its easing cycle in September. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, the market is pricing in a more than 98.1% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in September, increasing the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets such as Gold.
The only risk that could reverse gold's uptrend is a surprise increase in inflation, making investors doubt the possibility of interest rate cuts. However, recent data along with comments from the Fed suggest that the likelihood of inflation suddenly reaching the Fed's 2% target is very low.
Investors will have to wait until Friday for information on the June core Personal Consumer Expenditure Price Index (PCE). Last month, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation showed a 2.6% increase.
Besides inflation data, the market will also focus on US GDP data.
In terms of central bank activity, the Bank of Canada will announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday, with economists believing that weaker inflation data will pave the way for the central bank to cut interest rates. capacity.
Technical analysis
Gold prices showed that after reaching an all-time high last week, gold corrected downward for three consecutive sessions and ended the week at a key support point, the initial price of $2,400.
This $2,400 level is not only a base price but also a horizontal support and short-term trendline. While gold continues to sell below its initial price of $2,400, it is at risk of a deeper decline with the next target being the 34 moving average on the daily time frame.
However, with a close at $2,400, the technical uptrend has not yet reversed. Meanwhile, the long-term trend of gold is still completely towards the possibility of price increase.
As long as gold remains above the 2398 EMA, pullbacks should only be considered corrective moves, profit-taking activities in the market that do not change the main trend. Notable technical levels are listed as follows:
Support: 2392 - 2382 - 2371 - 2360 - 2352
Resistance: 2406 - 2420 - 2427 - 2436 - 2450 - 2467
註釋
Gold price attracts some buyers and snaps a three-day losing streak amid modest USD weakness.The US political development prompts some unwinding of the ‘Trump trade’ and weighs on the buck.
September Fed rate cut bets further undermine the USD and benefit the non-yielding XAU/USD.
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