As you can see in my related idea and on this chart - the smaller cycle perfectly caught the high and low in the recent three weeks. Now even though the longer term cycle turned down - looking at the price action I still think the smaller cycle being up will bring one more flush in precious metals. Recently we have observed a black swan event in the silver market - a group of private speculators decided to corner the silver market - with their previous success in small cap stocks they gained additional margin and it will be hard for the regulator to silence this wave. However, looking at cycles for silver and this ratio in the short term I believe they will as usual have great success in crushing the paper market. We don't stand a chance unless we purchase physical metal, they have infinite power until we keep the liquidity inside their system - they won't have a method to suppress the price if the demand for physical spikes into space. The premiums will get so out of hand that the paper market will be adjusted to the price of physical, if it doesn't we will have two different markets for the physical metal and the paper contracts for the metal - they will have no correlation to one another. I will not tell you what to do but I will not chase the move with the artificial corner, I believe that silver itself holds the potential for a crazy up move - but only when the time comes and cycles, momentum, etc will support the move. This is not a small cap stock - this is a commodity that is very meticulously regulated by the main financial authorities. The silver paper market along with gold, platinum and palladium measure trillions of dollars! I don't understand how a group of private speculators can corner a multi trillion dollar market against the CB's that have infinite liquidity and x100 leverage on silver. Technically looking silver failed to close above important resistance at 27.5, however it still sits above the 26.25 level. We have to wait and see next week, I wouldn't be surprised to see a move against the minor cycles in silver but it will be according to a rising longer term cycle. However, my opinion stays unchanged short term and I will wait for the next silver cycle to bottom around the 3rd of February. Remember futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
評論:
The cycle being up gives little to no effect - since the longer term cycle turned down in late January. The fact that we made a new low proves us that the trend is down and we will continue to drift lower.
