First off, Bitcoin is in a very strong bull market since 2009 so likelihood of new ATHs is always higher than not-reaching ATH ever again.
Throughout 2022 Bitcoin was in a clear correction / pullback phase after 2021 distribution.
Market got cleared out of leverage with Luna, FTX, 3AC, etc. fiascos and built ground for a new wave of a bull market.
Bull market started in 2023 with no signs of distribution so will likely continue.
Price is very close to ATH and given 10 Jan 2024 ETF deadline its about time for big emotional swings no matter whether ETF gets accepted or denied.
MA50 D1 acted as a support in 2023 bull market so it's very likely it will act as a support again and price is very unlikely to break through it down.
Other than that price is consolidating in a clear abc Eliott Wave correction below strong $42000 resistance, once it breaks out there is no real resistance until ATH.
Also, price is in a clear Eliott Wave ending diagonal pattern since a couple of months and ending diagonals in BTC bull markets tend to break up with strong impulsive movements.
All cards are lined up there is a huge likelihood of ATH soon with ETF deadline being a catalyst for the move. BTC is a very strong buy now.
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Abc correction seems to be over with a bottom at $41300. Now BTC started bull move and it should be very swift. 75k-90k in cards in January.