Bitcoin adjusted to market cycle

I think something like this make sense? We are at a 1st leg or wave of impulse, that is led by early adapters. 2nd leg up would be BTC outperforming SPX. 3rd wave would be a market chop w/ still some opportunities. 1st wave -> buy when it's cheap (bellow 70k crowd). Then comes rally to 120-150k. Before it becomes too expensive. 2nd and 3rd wave are led by ppl missing on a bandwagon, good returns. No crystal ball, see what happens:)

> Driver is the rate cuts and money at money market funds.

You can also see how divergence in BTC/SPX graph was the market top for btc.

評論:

//Elliot waves state that 1st and 3rd waves are same length. I dont think u need to take it at face value, but the concept of it. I think markets have drivers. Prices are important. It makes sense why it would rally to 120-150 or w/e the price is, before it becomes too expensive. Then the "dumb money" is left holding the bag at top, before correction. Peak could be triggered by external risks like new wars. Rate cut cycle lasts next 2-3 years?
not impossible for price to fly sooner. and then correcting itself. Markets are unpredictable. That being said, not everything is unpredictable.