After a prolonged stair-casing down in this corrective bearish market, we levelled out and have gone sideways for a day or so as a period of consolidation and accumulation.
In this zone of indecision, I identified the current bottom and we are indeed held up by a significant lower support which it has tested and honoured a few times. So in spite of a lot of bearish sentiment, or perhaps especially because of all the bearishness in the space, I chose to go Long with an entry of 6505.
So far so good, as we've had a couple of pumps bringing us to where we are sitting now at the edge of a downward trend line at a price of about 7000 dollars.
Further upward movements will knock out peoples stop losses from those who are shorting, resulting in them buying BTC as a consequence of closing their shorts. Resistance will weaken and in addition the effect of price going up will FOMO bulls in. So the entire process could cause an exponential snowball effect, resulting in a short squeeze.
So what I hope to see is a breakout beyond the trend line (in blue) to allow a greater move to the upside. To achieve the higher figures, we'll need to break resistance between here and 7200 as shown by my green box. Then there are further areas of resistance, which if broken will of course then become support. Potentially we could go all the way to the outer downward trend line shown in yellow, which could bring us to the dizzying heights of 78 - 79.
That outer line has never been broken, and I expect it to rebound down from there, as overall I am still a bear (just perhaps one with a couple of horns).
In this zone of indecision, I identified the current bottom and we are indeed held up by a significant lower support which it has tested and honoured a few times. So in spite of a lot of bearish sentiment, or perhaps especially because of all the bearishness in the space, I chose to go Long with an entry of 6505.
So far so good, as we've had a couple of pumps bringing us to where we are sitting now at the edge of a downward trend line at a price of about 7000 dollars.
Further upward movements will knock out peoples stop losses from those who are shorting, resulting in them buying BTC as a consequence of closing their shorts. Resistance will weaken and in addition the effect of price going up will FOMO bulls in. So the entire process could cause an exponential snowball effect, resulting in a short squeeze.
So what I hope to see is a breakout beyond the trend line (in blue) to allow a greater move to the upside. To achieve the higher figures, we'll need to break resistance between here and 7200 as shown by my green box. Then there are further areas of resistance, which if broken will of course then become support. Potentially we could go all the way to the outer downward trend line shown in yellow, which could bring us to the dizzying heights of 78 - 79.
That outer line has never been broken, and I expect it to rebound down from there, as overall I am still a bear (just perhaps one with a couple of horns).
評論:
Continued movement sideways means we will be forced to confront and test this descending trend line. It will have to make a decision one way or another. Either it will continue to pull us down, or it can break, and we can aim for the higher zones.