XBT Trade Strategy (The Exhaustion of the Bulls)

The bull run was fun. But one can only sprint for so long before having to take a break.

Price retraced with absolute precision to the .236 Fib level ($9600), and bounced hard off it. .236 is not a strong retrace level unfortunately, signaling this bear trend is still strong.

Basically, the retrace took us back to a High Value Node at $8850, and price is trying to figure out if it wants to tear down through this High Value Node or bounce off it and test the .236 fib level again.

If $8850 fails on the 4 hr, expect a retrace to the Point of Control at $8000.

Since volume was massive at $9600 (THE LARGEST in fact) I expect us to fall to the Point of Control at $8000.

I have to admit, $11.7k seemed to be in play as you can see I had a take profit level highlighted there. Unfortunately, we'll have to wait for that retrace.

My prediction: continue to hangup at $8500, then fall to $8000. If point of control fails again, $6.5k it is. Maybe then we can enjoy a nice pump to $11.7k.

Lesson learned: do not analyze anything less than the 4hr candle. Preferably the 1 day candles

評論:

Bulls Rejoice! Against my sentiment, bulls have bounced of the above identified high Value Node at $8850. Looks like they'd like a re-match against the .236 Fib level ($9600).

I won't be bold enough to predict if it will break through, but will open a trade once it has broken on the daily. If fails, will close long position.