n3u120

No bear traps in a bear market

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BITMEX:XBTUSD.P   Bitcoin
Really tired of hearing about 'bear traps'. It's called a bear market. The yellow short-term targets show either direction is possible, the key here is to react on confirmation of a target- not predict the direction with a crystal ball. That said, if I had to give long term prediction it's the two buy zones outlined. I'd like to see capitulation before trusting a turn around. Everything else has been a bull trap.

One day RSI failing to break trend line and likely to continue down until it breaks 30 on a daily close. MACD turing itself around. Only real volume we see is sell volume.

We could have a bounce up to Tenkan-Sen (light blue trend line), but it's not required. The Feb 6th drop put bitcoin Over $3k below Tenkan-Sen- this would put us in Buy Zone A with capitulation.

That said, we're squeezing pretty hard in a descending triangle inside a descending triangle. Bitcoin is notorious for breaking in the wrong direction and often market makers will pull us just under and trigger stops for liquidity reasons- then head back up in the expected direction. On the 4hr it looks like we're painting a bear flag, but plenty of these have risen to the upside- looks like bitcoin has its own set of patterns- the Bart Simpson and Marge Simpson. If it's not a bear flag it's a Marge Simpson formation.

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