BTC is at top & Overbought territory

The last fakeout yesterday (2019-08-06) XBT pointed: this rally need more correction time before the next big run

(1) The market structure

There is a clear red trendline on 4H chart.
If you catch this and clone it several times : you can fit to the other lows/highs in the past one month.
This gives a clear market structure to us.


(2) Many doji candlestick pattern

On 12H, 6H timeframes you can see a many doji patterns -> meaning trend reversals!

(3) SHORT Momentum is very obviously here

Lets see... only bear signals, here is the list:

• daily MFI very overbought
  
• daily TD sequential needs only one green day to complete the 9th bear sequential under correction
  
• we are sitting right on the VPVR resistance
  
• every big trader taking holiday (ok, this was just a joke, but really guys....it's the mid of the summer..)
  
• second time micro-triple-divergences on the 4HR
  
• daily didn't finish the fib correction not even to 0.5!
  

CONCLUSION

I hate intradtay trading, so I'll setup a very conservative short with ~x2.5 margin in the next 24 hours. (NOT NOW, because I'm waiting some form in the next ~12hrs)

ENTRY: ~12K
STOP: 12.2K (+ after I was right, then some trailing stop)
TARGET#1: 9.3K
TARGET#2: 8.5K

My bearish view is invalidated if we can break strong up to 13k, and we can hold it! In that case I'll looking for some retrace before jumping into long.

交易進行:

This is what I'm waiting for overnight:
Mutch more dojis, lower highs, no breakout after dayclose, ADX momentum...
so I've opened a 10.990$ entry short.
Very tight stop at ~12.1k, with margin x4.

A bit down and I will open a long position with
my hedging account to make this short safer!

交易進行:

This is the killing kombo.
After I've opened a SHORT at the top,
I'm opening a LONG at the bottom now with my hedging account.
SHORT position's STOP lifted to 12.15K.
This LONG's STOP is 11.45k.
Eighter way goes it.... I will absolute win.

評論:

UPDATE:
STOP of my SHORT is too tight!
I've changed it from 12.15 to 12.3k.
Reason of the risk I'm taking now:
yellow triangle spikes and because
I've insurenced by heding account's LONG.

評論:

If we can't close above 12k today, a hanging man candlestick will forming.
In that case + because its friday (cme close) I don't expent more bullish moves.... But this is bitcoin so who knows guys.
This is why I'm hedging against myself almost always when I can /like today/

評論:

Second test to breakdown.
Yesterday candle closed a hanging man...not a very bullish candle pattern....

I think : only we can breaking up with a very strong price manipulation.

However both position (NORMAL:SHORT, HEDGING: LONG) are still open.

評論:

I'm updating my already opened position's STOP levels.
On the chart you can see either way loss percents.
I've opened with 4x margin both since days.

Short opened : 11.990$
Now the stop is : ~12.1k

Long opened : 11.739$
Now the stop is: 11.489$

交易結束：達到停損點:

MAIN ACCOUNT's SHORT position in ~20% profit now :D
I'm modify the short positon's STOP to 11.870K

HEDGING LONG position stopped automatically.

評論:

Yesterday 100M of LONG liquidated.
My Current SHORT in 20% profit with margin, still open.
Doesn't seems like we will reverse the bear breakdown, but safety first:
I'm adjusting my current SHORT to the 0.7 FIB.
new STOP: $11.8k

評論:

New stop above 11.700$
FIB updated (but still at 0.786)
This means worst case (if the stop hits) the profit is 10% (with my current 4x margin)
If we can break above 12k, then I will looking for longs.

評論:

On bigger view literally happened nothing.
Potencial targets marked.

評論:

Updated trailing stop line.
Worst case : 20% profit now.

手動結束交易:

I've closed this MAIN ACCOUNT'S short manually at 10.050$. MORE THAN 60% profit reached ;)