OrigamiOracle的BITMEX:XBTUSD.P的Bitcoin - Bear Trap Take 3

For the past two weeks I have predicted a bear trap (rapid price drop, often caused by support break and long squeeze - followed by a rapid recovery). This is yet to occur, but I still think that it is going to happen soon, and within the window of one week. This could happen next week, as indicated by the Elliot Wave count - of which B has just been completed. This wave formed resistance of the 7 SMA under the 77 SMA on the 343 min chart, and candle bodies below the ichimoku cloud.

I will be closing and opening short positions at 5800, where I expect to see a bounce and some indecision before breaking down to touch 5K. There might be a dip into the high 4000s but I expect this only to be brief and will be watching closely to open long positions after the dust has settled.

6300 --> 5800 --> 5000 --> 6000 --> 7000

註釋

Here we go! Short Entry ~6360, Stop >6400, Targets 5800; 5000

註釋

Very Bearish reversal candle about to close:

註釋

Get ready for the fireworks:

註釋

343 min chart:

註釋

Volume spike and price bounce likely caused by long stop losses hit at 6250. This support will not hold on next test

註釋

Please ignore the previous post, I got mixed up with long and short stops. Long stop losses being hit would increase selling, not cause a bounce.

註釋

Binance has now begun scheduled maintenance. Deposits, withdrawals and trading will be suspended for 8 hours.
I think this will act as a catalyst for a drop in price. Binance is the second largest exchange by adjusted volume. It is not a margin trading exchange so does not allow shorting. This causes a bullish skew on price action since there is less incentive to sell as there is to buy. Reducing this bullish skew by temporarily suspending the exchange will likely catalyze a drop in price.
twitter.com/binance/status/1062357929599225857

註釋

C wave bearish channel, 1% height

註釋

Breakdown and resistance under bear channel, the drop should now accelerate:

註釋

Bounce from 5550 to 5950

註釋

We reach halfway through the week (utc time) in just over one day. It seems likely that we will spend this time bouncing and establishing a bear flag before dropping to 5000 around 1 day later, allowing for 2 days to bounce all the way back up to the low 7000s

註釋

Divergence indicators need to cool off

註釋

tradingview.com/x/KbKv0swb/https://www.tradingview.com/x/KbKv0swb/

註釋

Price may just test 5800 before dropping to 5K

註釋

RSI seems too oversold to be a bear flag, so I don't think we will touch 5 K yet. My best guess is this:

註釋

It seems like a double bottom will cause optimism to break through 5800, before finding resistance under 6000, and dropping rapidly to 5K and bouncing hard and fast.

註釋

I realised that I the purple vertical line I use to indicate the middle of the week was actually a little late. After adjusting to equal time between week open and close, the center point is found far sooner than I thought. We are about to hit this point, which is often a time of increased volatility during the week for bitcoin. My best guess is that we will break upwards, following the prediction outlined above. Although we could also break down to touch 5K from here

註釋

looks like we're about to touch 5 and turn around

註釋

Potential drop incoming:

註釋

End of day, time to drop

註釋

Timing is looking good (Have not changed since last updates

註釋

5K may be an hour away:

註釋

Looks like I called the timing pretty well!

註釋

I guess my timing of the drop wasn't so good after all!
But we have just crossed 7SMA down through 77 SMA on the 21 min chart, drop to touch 5k could be any minute now

註釋

Bearish RSI

註釋

Short squeeze, still bearish

註釋

As we approach the end of the week, bitcoin has yet to touch 5K and remains bearish. If we close the weekly candle below the phase 2 trend, that puts the hyperwave formation into question. However, some hyperwaves do continue to complete the phase even if they temporarily break the trend line.
This would fit the description of "Bear Trap", where things genuinely look bad, like they could continue dropping, causing panic selling. This is my current outlook:

註釋

(The above circle should be green, not red)

註釋

The short term Elliot Wave form is now broke, we should go to 5K now

註釋

We may test 5K again before breaking up on this triangle, but this is most likely the bottom. We should see huge and fast growth straight to 20K from here
ALL ABOARD!

註釋

Bottom could be found at 4K

註釋

Bitcoin - Bear Trap Take 3

免責聲明