XBT to see a drop to 8300$ before rising to 9400$ price level
已更新
Crypto-AST XBT/USD Weekly Breakdown - 27/01/2020
Daily chart
- XBT is the bearish price leader, while BTC (finex) is the bullish price leader in the market. This means that we will often see early bearish warning signs in the market, first and foremost on the Bitmex exchange.
- Reviewing our daily chart for XBT, we can see that EMA 200 support lays at 8200$ and we are currently seeing a bearish cross over on MA’s on the daily. We are also seeing a bearish divergence on the daily chart mainly on the RSI/ROC momentum indicator. However, both indicators are at bearish points with both attempting to fly down to bullish support zones. We can see that the main level for the bears to overcome is the 8524$ level whereas on finex its the 8570$ level.
- In the long term, after finding support at the 8300$ level, we see price going back up to the 9200$ and thereafter to the 9605$ on the mex exchange for XBT. At the same time, the finex exchange will see highs of only 9400$. For longs to these levels to be confirmed, we need a break above 8800$ level on the Mex exchange.
- Given that we break above the 9605$ price level then, we can long once again to the 10,535$ mark, while the finex exchange will lag slightly behind this price level.
- Its important to note the bearish scenario here and its with a break below 8050$ and then everything changes and we short to 7484$ mark.
4 hourly chart
- On the 4 hourly, we continue to see clarification that we are at a bearish point on the XBT/USD pair. We can observe that EMA 200 on the 4 hourly is also at 8200$ and this indicates to us, we should see unconservative take profits up to 8250$ for support given that we continue to move our stops into profit. Again, we can observe our momentum indicators at resistance levels and if we see a reversal at current price of 8641$, we are creating lows highs. Switching to more specialist chart settings, we may come to expect stop hunting for short positions up to the 8700$ level before a reversal to the downside begins.
1 hourly chart
- We can see that on the hourly chart that EMA 200 lays at the 8500$ level, and we may want to enter shorts early once 8570$ is closed below and move stops to breakeven once 8500$ is broken. Once again, momentum indicators are in free fall on this time frame to support zones indicating a drop to the 8300$ support level before bullish price action takes charge once again. As stated in our last section of the 4 hourly analysis, we may expect a rise to the 8700$ before we see the bears take back charge.
- We will be giving signals in real time but this is the overall analysis of the market for the week ahead.
Summary
- For shorts to be confirmed, we need to see a close in price below the 8570$ price level and once 8500$ is reached, we must move stops into breakeven/entry. Take profits for these shorts will be the 8300$ level on the mex exchange with unconservative take profit at 8250$, given that we move stops into profit and let the trade run risk free.
- For longs to be confirmed, we need to see a close above the 8,800$ price level and take profits at 9200$ and 9400$ conservatively. None the less, if we see support form at 8300-8250$, and we go on to close above the 8524$ price level, then we can do an early long to the above take profit levels.
- Radical bearish situation comes along with the instance that XBT breaks below the 8200$ and then 8050$ level for us to short to the 7484$ support level ; but this is unlikely in my honest opinion at the minute.
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Daily chart
- XBT is the bearish price leader, while BTC (finex) is the bullish price leader in the market. This means that we will often see early bearish warning signs in the market, first and foremost on the Bitmex exchange.
- Reviewing our daily chart for XBT, we can see that EMA 200 support lays at 8200$ and we are currently seeing a bearish cross over on MA’s on the daily. We are also seeing a bearish divergence on the daily chart mainly on the RSI/ROC momentum indicator. However, both indicators are at bearish points with both attempting to fly down to bullish support zones. We can see that the main level for the bears to overcome is the 8524$ level whereas on finex its the 8570$ level.
- In the long term, after finding support at the 8300$ level, we see price going back up to the 9200$ and thereafter to the 9605$ on the mex exchange for XBT. At the same time, the finex exchange will see highs of only 9400$. For longs to these levels to be confirmed, we need a break above 8800$ level on the Mex exchange.
- Given that we break above the 9605$ price level then, we can long once again to the 10,535$ mark, while the finex exchange will lag slightly behind this price level.
- Its important to note the bearish scenario here and its with a break below 8050$ and then everything changes and we short to 7484$ mark.
4 hourly chart
- On the 4 hourly, we continue to see clarification that we are at a bearish point on the XBT/USD pair. We can observe that EMA 200 on the 4 hourly is also at 8200$ and this indicates to us, we should see unconservative take profits up to 8250$ for support given that we continue to move our stops into profit. Again, we can observe our momentum indicators at resistance levels and if we see a reversal at current price of 8641$, we are creating lows highs. Switching to more specialist chart settings, we may come to expect stop hunting for short positions up to the 8700$ level before a reversal to the downside begins.
1 hourly chart
- We can see that on the hourly chart that EMA 200 lays at the 8500$ level, and we may want to enter shorts early once 8570$ is closed below and move stops to breakeven once 8500$ is broken. Once again, momentum indicators are in free fall on this time frame to support zones indicating a drop to the 8300$ support level before bullish price action takes charge once again. As stated in our last section of the 4 hourly analysis, we may expect a rise to the 8700$ before we see the bears take back charge.
- We will be giving signals in real time but this is the overall analysis of the market for the week ahead.
Summary
- For shorts to be confirmed, we need to see a close in price below the 8570$ price level and once 8500$ is reached, we must move stops into breakeven/entry. Take profits for these shorts will be the 8300$ level on the mex exchange with unconservative take profit at 8250$, given that we move stops into profit and let the trade run risk free.
- For longs to be confirmed, we need to see a close above the 8,800$ price level and take profits at 9200$ and 9400$ conservatively. None the less, if we see support form at 8300-8250$, and we go on to close above the 8524$ price level, then we can do an early long to the above take profit levels.
- Radical bearish situation comes along with the instance that XBT breaks below the 8200$ and then 8050$ level for us to short to the 7484$ support level ; but this is unlikely in my honest opinion at the minute.
CHECK OUT OUR TELEGRAM CHANNEL DOWN BELOW FOR TIMELY UPDATES AND EXACT ENTRIES!
註釋
XBT USD UPDATE We will not be doing a comprehensive breakdown of XBT USD price action but rather a condensed update to keep us up to speed. This is mainly because last weeks breakdown is still in play and is going as planned. With that being said, lets begin!
- We have seen a rejection from the 9605$ resistance level to the T! As with our BTC USD update, we are seeing bearish divergences on the daily. We continue to expect bearish price action to the 9200$ and 9090$ price levels respectively. As we know, XBT is a bearish price leader in the market and thus we may see lows forming at 9050$ instead but conservatively its best to keep take profits for any shorts at 9090$. We can only enter long positions to 10,000$ and 10,200$ in the circumstance we see a break to the upside above 9700$ on Bitmex. On Finex, we see that bullish price action seems to slow down at 10,200$ but on Bitmex, we can see that price could spike to as high as 10535$ before the bears take back charge in the market. This will also mean that Finex will also see highs at 10,500$ through wicking above the 10,200$ resistance level outlined by downtrend line.
- We will short in the stance that price on Bitmex breaks 9320$ to the downside and we will close 50% of position at 9200$ with the other 50% being closed at 9110$. It would be advised to place stop loss at entry once the 9200$ price level is reached.
- We will long once 9700$ is broken to the upside to 10,000$ and 10,200$ with new positions being opened once 10,200$ is broken after a short period of price consolidation. We already have limit longs from 9700$ prescribed from last weeks trading session.
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