BTCUSD / Another Possible M-formation => 7754

2020年5月1日

Chart says it all.

On Daily, and 4H there is a clear M-formation (easily visible on 4H).
If we continue this formation we'll have to go to the base of the M at the very least, which is around 7754.
After the last leg of an M formation, it will rise up to the M neckline again, which is around 8410.
From that point the formation and reaction has completed, and it can go up/down again depending on market.

I'm looking at short from 9000+ level currently and expecting high 7k target within next 4-5 days, or I will exit them and re-analyze.

2020年5月1日

註釋

NOTE: this retracement has visibly more SELL volume than BUY volume, across all exchanges (top 6 that I monitor anyway).
this is a-typical for a bullish retracement, though I believe this has to do with miners offloading as many of them had probably been holding inventory for up to 2+ months since the crash, and are desperately needing to offload to stay in business.

as miners are effectively the only real sellers (bears) in the market, this makes sense to me.

2020年5月1日

交易進行

entry @ 9015, 9030. did not reach 9100 entry
TP1: 8455 (neckline) 50%
TP2: 7888 (M completion) 25%
TP3: 7748 (M overshoot) 25%

2020年5月1日

註釋

if this 4H candle breaks above 2nd M peak then it is a strong signal that M formation is being invalidated.
looking at it closely
(that means it goes above 9030)

2020年5月2日

註釋

too early to tell but this is looking like an invalidation of M formation.
so I am lowering my stop loss to break-even (like 0.1% profit level)
My avg entry is 9020 so putting SL to 9005 right now.
if it breaks above that it will be either:
1) fake pump'n'dump = i can re-enter at 9200 level
2) invalidation and bullish breakout = i can enter long at 9100 level with confirmation of breakout volume

if #1 it will be a high volatile fast move without significant volume.
if #2 it will be a slower gradual move with volume.

2020年5月2日

手動結束交易

closed the previous shorts below 8900

2020年5月2日

註釋

looking to re-enter shorts with the following:
entry: 9190, 9240, 9290, 9340
SL: 9390

the longterm 14k-10k trendline will be around 9350 in the next 24-48h

if this does not happen by evening sunday US time then i will cancel these orders and wait for asia market open monday morning asia time. since i would expect more FOMO pre-halvening buy pressure then and dont want to get wicked out.

if this pump'n'dump does not happen by monday market opening, i expect higher probability to have an upward rally towards 9.6k and possibly even 10.2k so will be cancelling orders before then and watching market.