BTC - Revised $4100-$4400 Target

Sorry if this chart is too busy, but Jesus... My initial target was $5k. But because the bulls have managed to hold onto it for dear life, they've validated an ABCDE triangle and have widened themselves from our most important support line.
That is literally the worst thing they could have done. If the bulls had just accepted the loss, we could have dropped. hit our .786 fib extension, and bounce off of our support line.

But I have to call for an even more bearish fall here. We're losing sight of our support line. Daily Stoch has increased all the way to overbought on the daily just by bouncing $500, and we're looking at a 1-1 extension from waves A to B. I tried to find some things that could give us support at 5k regardless. And there ARE support zones labeled based on previous peaks of BTC             in August-Septemeber (a critical time in BTC             history). These create confluence and support zones where we can see reversal.

The .786 fib line is at $4,400. Which is also the peak of the high on September.
Then I took the average drop of the past 4 major drops on this past run, which was roughly $2700 points. Where does that lead us? $4300. Then if we look at this support line (for the absolute low), that could take us to $4100 if TIME permits. I'm expecting a HARD sell off here because the Bulls have managed to drag this thing out. Remember when I said that people will panic sell at $5k... Imagine if that breaks, the ones who wanted $5k will surely be scared if this hits the low $4ks.

This actually is just disappointing. You all KNOW that I don't give financial advice on here. But for this one time, highly advise to NOT be long right now and get your cash ready for a SWING position. And when we bounce to 10k from $4k, take your money and run. Because I can say with absolute certainty that if we fall to $4.1-4.3k region, I will officially go 1 year bear market mode. This is what I did not want to see. But it's the cards we are dealt with, and what we have to face because of parabolic growth. And at the same time, I am not, nor will I be surprised - because this is something I've previously mentioned of being a scenario. This has potential to NOT be the year of the investor, but the year of the trader. Parabolic growth is only good for the moment. And only good if you just take your profits. We CAN bounce at $5k. No doubt, but now its less likely. The probability of that happening has now decreased.

I will upload previous charts and descriptions from the previous post, because the idea is still the same. But I want all of you to be aware of the possibilities that this year has to come. I want you all to end profitable, to regain any losses you've assumed over the past few months and give yourselves better set-ups for the future of Bitcoin             . Because the future is STILL bright! Just not 2018 (if this drop happens).

Here is an overall view of the chart since its been a while since we've seen it. Since we know that this is cycle wave 4. We can properly place our fib lines from the top at 19.9k to the bottom around $270 (i think thats where I put it at, not exactly sure right now).

We may not even get to $7k. But here is the trade setup. Should not go over $7100.
評論: Can't sleep. Down goes Frazier!!
評論: Guys, I've never seen anything like this before. This is super super weird how BTC has bought back up. And It has me a bit nervous in my short-position I'm not going to lie.
評論: Holy cow guys... Woah. I'm out of the short. I've taken the loss here. This is incredible

Guys, I was PURELY wrong. I can't believe my eyes right now, but this 100% looks like a reversal. This downtrend seems to be over. I would like to wait and see what it does with the daily resistance, but I'm in shock. It defied any odds of indicators and any signals of falling behind. I will continue to look at the charts here. But this is DEFINITELY unexpected on my part. And I apologize for being so incredibly wrong here. Sorry guys.

When we make a make a bad call, we suck it up, accept the loss and move on. I expect us to break this daily resistance line, retest it and POSSIBLY try to hit $8500. We are still very overbought on Stoch RSI on multiple timelines. So I'd still expect a pretty big retrace after all of these waves are done with.

What really worries me right now is the condition of the 12 hour indicators. We're in resistance zones and it would be pretty hard for BTC AND ETH to gain more bullish traction after a drop here. Bulls NEED this daily resistance to now become a support. Just because the price raised very quickly and bullishly today, does NOT mean we are out of the clear for a reversal a full reversal.

Could the run today be a strategy to liquidate short positions so that bids are decreased and we can have a pure sell-off that takes us down? Sure! Could this actually be a reversal? Sure! But what we've seen today was a major bull run, that completely died off. Based on short-term RSI indicators (hourly), it would make sense for us to get a higher high, and my original thesis to fall through, with this wave count. But bulls need to be very very cautious.
評論: We hit our green revised target at $8430! Right on the money. I'd expect some more retrace here. BTC does look weird as hell right now. But we are getting signs of bearishness. Expect a decent retrace here, I think we could fall all the way back to $7200.
評論: Well that was really good timing LOL. Dropped like 200 points in just minutes, right after I posted that. Both BTC and ETH having a bit of a bearish drop. Momentum will be very important to watch these next few days. Again, we want this correction to be a healthy one. Meaning a few stops and bounces along the way.

I had a whole entire post that wouldn't upload then got deleted. So I'm leaving this here. I seriously have no idea what BTC is about to do. But if we break $8420, then we can rally all the way up to the $8800-$9050 region. And if we fail to do so and get a double top here, AND we fall through the bottom of wave 4, then we can find support at the $7250-$7500 range. It's very iffy right now because indicators are all showing different things.

I don't think short-term predictions right now are quite important for BTC in a week's time, because I do believe that by the time, BTC will either be of THIS currently value or lower. A week from now, we should be in correction time if we do go higher. But, we ARE in an uptrend. And I do not believe we will fall below $6400 for a few months.
評論: There it is. BTC has now entered the $8800-$9080 resistance zone.
Appreciate the update! I find the most challenging part of trading is patience.
Eball8 lvuman
@lvuman, Always the most challenging at first! I've found that most experienced traders say true patience takes 2-3 years to subconsciously develop as a part of the trading game. So lacking patience at first is very typical. I still struggle with it at times.
No need to apologize, that pump came out of nowhere and it definitely looks like reversal, giant sim triangle on the 4H MACD being pierced is a beauty
What would a failed breakout count look like?
@ss44, WXYXZXY. Check out my Mt Gox post. It shows what I'm expecting for the rest of the year.
Got rekt on short too, that was... unexpected..? Maybe yes, but Shorts chart gave a bad feeling to me
Any reason behind the alts push?
Eball8 Mishkamisho
@Mishkamisho, market leveraging and strategies. Only one coin EOS i believe had a fundamental driver. Everything else seemed to be propped up by bigger players to increase profits on this short. Bigger players just moving price around for more profit, a lot of them see this big fall coming.
+1 回覆
Love your work buddy! Thank you for spreading knowledge.
Aren't you a little young to be trading? You look about 5 years old in your profile pic.
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