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How to Play the 3 Bitcoin Scenarios

First of all, I abruptly disappeared from social media due to personal reasons, and found enough reason to not return. This post is not my return to the social trading world, as i’m much happier without it. However, even though I keep my eyes open to what others are saying, I felt a very big disconnect in TA and reasoning behind certain scenarios happening from a technical aspect.

Though, technical analysis is very very subjective - it’s what trading that makes everything count. I hold no responsibility to the trading of others, but I figured i’ll post a few scenarios and *maybe* how i’ll play them if I can. I only use ICT’s methodology for Forex, but I still use EW for crypto.

I’m overall neutral on Bitcoin, but I am leaning bullish, and bullish towards 20k. First thing first, lets just look at the daily RSI. It’s perfectly positioned to set up a bullish divergence on RSI. People are getting a bit too bearish already, don’t listen to the crowd. Blood in the streets is when you bring out the mop. Take a look at the support line below, it’s fairly important, and if you don’t have it marked down you should. There’s 3 more charts i’m going to show, and the possibilities within them. So take a close look and the different counts and different reactions off of support lines (that still work well in crypto - which is why I use them.

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This is the first scenario (bull scenario) that I think would happen as long as the daily RSI maintains a bullish divergence. It looks a bit odd, but a C wave with an ending expanding diagonal could make sense here, especially with how much the trend lines of the diagonal are being respected. Remember that ending diagonals are in 3s, not 5s. For a WXY count, this would be pretty valid here. If I see the divergence with confirmation that I want, i’ll enter a long with a heft RR and a lot of risk.

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So, the even though the first chart shows what looks like a large multi-month long diagonal, it really isn’t... there’s no count for it, and the correct points don’t touch, so it’s not valid. So we can’t trust that support to fully hold. Now, this scenario is definitely possible, but would leave a tough job for RSI on the daily to stay bullish, so i’m a bit skeptical of this. But this surely would be a valid count for a diagonal, it’s just that the points needed to touch each trend line - don’t. Plus, this diagonal is a bit too narrow and sloped down at too steep of an angle for me, but I guess it’s still possible. I’m looking to catch the bottom here with an RR of over 40 for the bull side, so I have no intention of shorting; and if things turn bearish, then I just won’t participate. I have enough to look forward too in Forex.

Hopefully this all makes sense to you all. I’ll probably update if I enter the trade or if I call it off. If I don’t see what I want to see I am in no pressure to jump in, that’s the luxury of this scenario. Win big, or just walk away. Always manage your risk folks. Don’t hold onto losers, use exits levels, manage risk, and don’t be stupid. Easier said than done.

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Also forgot to mention the fib levels, right in the sweet spot. Keep that in mind.

交易進行

Long

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