With volatility this low I am looking for trades with IV percentile in the last 6months of above 25. XLP have an IV Rank of 14.5 which is low, but IV percentile of 33.5 in the last 6 months (which would meet with my criteria). I am placing an skewed Iron Condor, betting that it will stay within the expected move with a little skewed to the downside thinking that it might want to attack the 200 EMA. I did a ratio of 3 calls spreads for every 2 put spreads.
The trade:
56/58 (2xCall spread) 54/51 (3xPut spread)
51% POP
1.61 credit per contract.
Our break evens are at 53.22 and 56.51
Target is 50% of credit received.
The trade:
56/58 (2xCall spread) 54/51 (3xPut spread)
51% POP
1.61 credit per contract.
Our break evens are at 53.22 and 56.51
Target is 50% of credit received.
交易進行:
This trade is going well, already winning 25% and right in our sweet spot. Our probabilities have improved to over 60%.
交易結束：目標達成
