An analysis for long term HODL'ers and investors. Daily XRPUSD log chart shows highly speculative future price movement. 2 primary ideas behind this view.
1) The first is that the 200 day EMA provides support for long term moves in price. because it is based on 200 days, it ignores daily shifts in prices and shows the long term trend. When the massive bull move started in December, the 200 EMA was near .18. Now it is near .77 and climbing. Notice that price moved under it briefly a few weeks ago and quickly moved back above it. A touch of the 200 EMA happened once during the multi-month correction from the interim high near .40 in 2017... only once. We are nearing a possible re-touch of the 200 EMA. There is no requirement that price touch it again before resuming the uptrend (it only touched the average 1 time all of 2017), but if it does, a very significant bounce/change of trend is likely to develop from near it. On the other hand, a sustained break below this average would indicate a shift in long term trend and would be very bearish. Don't get me wrong, I do not see this latter bearish scenario as a likely possibility right now, but just want to show it as a possibility to watch for.
2) The second is the idea that long trend channels guide movement of prices. More to be found on the idea here... stockcharts.com...school/doku.php?id=chart_s... XRP has burst up and down so dramatically and quickly in the past 14 months, it has created very wide trend channel possibilities (yellow dotted). In order to show them, I am showing a log version of the chart. Until we get 2 confirmed touches on the bottom channel, the exact location/angle it is still tentative (I am showing 2 possibilities), but as long as the long term bull market for XRP is still intact (which I fully expect is true), then the existence of a lower trendline that slopes upward is certain (by definition). Note that we do have 2 distinct touches that form the upper line of the trend channel, so it will likely become strong resistance at some point. For perspective, as of today, the upward sloping line is near $5.40. On April 1st, it is at $7.23. On June 1st, it is at $12.77.
As you can see, I believe we are nearing a critical juncture of the long term uptrend in XRPUSD. My experience with many years of following price movement is that corrections against the primary trend (in XRP's case, primary trend being up, corrections being down), are either deep in terms of time or price, but not typically both. During the correction between May - Dec 2017, max price correction was near 60% retracement of the high near .40 and took 7 months to complete (ended up being a wedge/triangle/diagonal pattern... see my post below)*. So far, the correction from early January 2018 retraced between 85-90% of the move up from near .20 - near $3.21 to get back to the recent low of .57 in a little over 1 month! It is of course possible that we are forming another wedge/triangle/diagonal pattern as a correction, but given the severity and speed of the price retracement, I believe we have seen the price low of this correction or are very close to seeing it.
*Note that the actual price low of the correction between May - Dec happened on 5/17, 2 months after the high near .40. It took another 5 months to finish the wedge/triangle/diagonal pattern. www.xrpchat.com/topi...sal-pattern-bullish/
1) The first is that the 200 day EMA provides support for long term moves in price. because it is based on 200 days, it ignores daily shifts in prices and shows the long term trend. When the massive bull move started in December, the 200 EMA was near .18. Now it is near .77 and climbing. Notice that price moved under it briefly a few weeks ago and quickly moved back above it. A touch of the 200 EMA happened once during the multi-month correction from the interim high near .40 in 2017... only once. We are nearing a possible re-touch of the 200 EMA. There is no requirement that price touch it again before resuming the uptrend (it only touched the average 1 time all of 2017), but if it does, a very significant bounce/change of trend is likely to develop from near it. On the other hand, a sustained break below this average would indicate a shift in long term trend and would be very bearish. Don't get me wrong, I do not see this latter bearish scenario as a likely possibility right now, but just want to show it as a possibility to watch for.
2) The second is the idea that long trend channels guide movement of prices. More to be found on the idea here... stockcharts.com...school/doku.php?id=chart_s... XRP has burst up and down so dramatically and quickly in the past 14 months, it has created very wide trend channel possibilities (yellow dotted). In order to show them, I am showing a log version of the chart. Until we get 2 confirmed touches on the bottom channel, the exact location/angle it is still tentative (I am showing 2 possibilities), but as long as the long term bull market for XRP is still intact (which I fully expect is true), then the existence of a lower trendline that slopes upward is certain (by definition). Note that we do have 2 distinct touches that form the upper line of the trend channel, so it will likely become strong resistance at some point. For perspective, as of today, the upward sloping line is near $5.40. On April 1st, it is at $7.23. On June 1st, it is at $12.77.
As you can see, I believe we are nearing a critical juncture of the long term uptrend in XRPUSD. My experience with many years of following price movement is that corrections against the primary trend (in XRP's case, primary trend being up, corrections being down), are either deep in terms of time or price, but not typically both. During the correction between May - Dec 2017, max price correction was near 60% retracement of the high near .40 and took 7 months to complete (ended up being a wedge/triangle/diagonal pattern... see my post below)*. So far, the correction from early January 2018 retraced between 85-90% of the move up from near .20 - near $3.21 to get back to the recent low of .57 in a little over 1 month! It is of course possible that we are forming another wedge/triangle/diagonal pattern as a correction, but given the severity and speed of the price retracement, I believe we have seen the price low of this correction or are very close to seeing it.
*Note that the actual price low of the correction between May - Dec happened on 5/17, 2 months after the high near .40. It took another 5 months to finish the wedge/triangle/diagonal pattern. www.xrpchat.com/topi...sal-pattern-bullish/
評論:
We have moved sideways toward the first dotted yellow trendline, had a brief touch on it over the last 12 hours, and a bounce off of it with a move through the 4H 50 EMA. Good sign that the market believes the trendline is significant.