Wheat Futures - ZW - Like Snakes in a Can
已更新
Snakes in a can is not a great metaphor for food. Nonetheless, that's the pattern that seems to be developing on wheat futures.
All know that the world's food crops are not in good shape. Massive drought tends to kill plants, which ruins harvests, which causes some obvious downside effects in economies.
Each year in recent years, we're running out of supply until the next year's harvest arrives, which replenishes the silos, which means that you won't really feel the pain of a bad harvest until the following year.
Yay for 2022, not so yay for 2023. 2024 is a dark horizon.
On the monthly chart, Wheat ZW swept out the long-term 2008 high in March on the back of the Russian Federation invading Ukraine:
It only swept the high, however, and has since corrected, hard. It's specifically notable that despite the massive dump, wheat did not take out the January pivot in either July, or in August's very gentle stop raid.
In fact, wheat has spent the better part of two months ranging in this accumulation area, which is bad news for bears and good news for bulls.
It's also notable that corn has already had a significant breakout that took out a previous month's high:
Corn Futures ZC1 - Spooling Like a Turbo
(Too bad I had my compass on backwards for that one and picked that it would go down before it would go up, when it just went up in a straight line. But hey, at least I drew my box in the right place -_-)
Contracts of similar category tend to move in the same direction, but at different times, of each other.
To be frank, I believe that this means wheat is all but guaranteed to set all new highs. However, it's a question of when. In reality, price is the easy part and time is the hard part.
When it comes to "when," at least right now, you can tell from the pattern post-stop raid that we're ready to go somewhere, and that somewhere is probably up.
In terms of between now and the end of September, I think that the most realistic targets are July's equal highs at ~845 and July's monthly high at ~940.
I believe that a major commodities supercycle lies ahead. Something that will really be fun to trade but painful for reality. But I also believe that a big shakeout is imminent before we go there. For wheat, based on how its traded, this may mean it provides something of a shelter or a safe haven, running bull while many other things correct and dump.
As the world gets crazy, keep in mind that no matter how the media and the government howls its narrative, the human race is still ultimately on a planet that orbits a sun and is positioned inside of a very, very, very immense Universe.
The more immense the Universe, the less possible it is that we are either the only lives that exist or the highest lives that exist. That is how statistics and probabilities works.
And I am not talking about such and such idea of aliens. I am talking about the idea of "Gods," which I do not regard as limited to the Marxist-smeared religious dogma of a giant old white man wearing a robe in the sky judging you when you swear or drink.
Instead, to speak of Gods is to simply have a rational understanding about the structure of the Cosmos, its multitudinous dimensions, and those higher lives with power that occupy those dimensions and oversee this human stage during the end of a Cosmic Era.
What I am getting at with the above, is that no matter how "chaotic" things get, the chaos is actually a manifest form of order. Things are happening for a reason, are planned both above and below in advance, and no matter how the Earth capsizes and the Sky falls, the tribulation provides an opportunity.
The Divine is ultimately in control of where we are headed, and for good people, there is hope.
So make sure you maintain your kindness, your conscience, your sense of justice, and your rationality. Do your best, and don't lose heart.
In history, humanity's catastrophes, such as famines, have always had a target, and the target has almost never been people who are virtuous and are walking on the traditional path.
All know that the world's food crops are not in good shape. Massive drought tends to kill plants, which ruins harvests, which causes some obvious downside effects in economies.
Each year in recent years, we're running out of supply until the next year's harvest arrives, which replenishes the silos, which means that you won't really feel the pain of a bad harvest until the following year.
Yay for 2022, not so yay for 2023. 2024 is a dark horizon.
On the monthly chart, Wheat ZW swept out the long-term 2008 high in March on the back of the Russian Federation invading Ukraine:
It only swept the high, however, and has since corrected, hard. It's specifically notable that despite the massive dump, wheat did not take out the January pivot in either July, or in August's very gentle stop raid.
In fact, wheat has spent the better part of two months ranging in this accumulation area, which is bad news for bears and good news for bulls.
It's also notable that corn has already had a significant breakout that took out a previous month's high:
Corn Futures ZC1 - Spooling Like a Turbo
(Too bad I had my compass on backwards for that one and picked that it would go down before it would go up, when it just went up in a straight line. But hey, at least I drew my box in the right place -_-)
Contracts of similar category tend to move in the same direction, but at different times, of each other.
To be frank, I believe that this means wheat is all but guaranteed to set all new highs. However, it's a question of when. In reality, price is the easy part and time is the hard part.
When it comes to "when," at least right now, you can tell from the pattern post-stop raid that we're ready to go somewhere, and that somewhere is probably up.
In terms of between now and the end of September, I think that the most realistic targets are July's equal highs at ~845 and July's monthly high at ~940.
I believe that a major commodities supercycle lies ahead. Something that will really be fun to trade but painful for reality. But I also believe that a big shakeout is imminent before we go there. For wheat, based on how its traded, this may mean it provides something of a shelter or a safe haven, running bull while many other things correct and dump.
As the world gets crazy, keep in mind that no matter how the media and the government howls its narrative, the human race is still ultimately on a planet that orbits a sun and is positioned inside of a very, very, very immense Universe.
The more immense the Universe, the less possible it is that we are either the only lives that exist or the highest lives that exist. That is how statistics and probabilities works.
And I am not talking about such and such idea of aliens. I am talking about the idea of "Gods," which I do not regard as limited to the Marxist-smeared religious dogma of a giant old white man wearing a robe in the sky judging you when you swear or drink.
Instead, to speak of Gods is to simply have a rational understanding about the structure of the Cosmos, its multitudinous dimensions, and those higher lives with power that occupy those dimensions and oversee this human stage during the end of a Cosmic Era.
What I am getting at with the above, is that no matter how "chaotic" things get, the chaos is actually a manifest form of order. Things are happening for a reason, are planned both above and below in advance, and no matter how the Earth capsizes and the Sky falls, the tribulation provides an opportunity.
The Divine is ultimately in control of where we are headed, and for good people, there is hope.
So make sure you maintain your kindness, your conscience, your sense of justice, and your rationality. Do your best, and don't lose heart.
In history, humanity's catastrophes, such as famines, have always had a target, and the target has almost never been people who are virtuous and are walking on the traditional path.
註釋
Took out the July double top. It can't go too wild with 2 days left in the month, can it?註釋
Wheat's pattern looks healthy for a run over the double top and to push towards new highs: Everything is hard when the beginning of the month is Thursday and a long weekend is Monday.
註釋
I actually think the run on this 794~ low is bullish considering Wheat only just swept the July double tops. I don't think the MM has achieved its upside target yet:Consider the weekly candles painted and that the week of Aug. 15 was already a manipulation move targeting sellers.
註釋
Wheat is looking good to take a run at the next price target
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