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BTC 盤整區間我該多還空？ BTC in a sideways, should I go long or short ?今天早上八點的這根四小時K棒奪取了 12/14 的高點，價格行情會出現一次回調 等價格回調到 41785 - 42180 這個區間範圍中，我們接著觀察價格是否有出現反轉訊號，如果有出現訊號我會在這個位置再次進一筆多單。 剛好這邊也是昨天剛形成的一個破壞塊，加上日線斐波那契剛好也是大約在0.5的位置 我保持客觀的看法推測到這邊會有不少的買壓可以推動價格再一次上升 進場價格：41807 - 42097 停損價格：依當時15分鐘級別形成反轉的底部Ｋ線最低價 出場目標：44697 以上不構成投資建議，請大家在市場交易中小心謹慎控制風險 追蹤凱哥，帶你上車 This morning at 8 AM, the four-hour candlestick captured the high point of 12/14, suggesting a potential retracement in the price movement. Upon a retracement to the range of 41785 - 42180, we'll monitor for reversal signals. If a signal emerges, I will consider entering a long position at this level. This area coincides with a recently formed support block and aligns with the daily Fibonacci retracement, approximately at the 0.5 position. Maintaining an objective perspective, I speculate that there could be substantial buying pressure here, propelling the price upwards once again. Entry Range: 41807 - 42097 Stop Loss: Based on the lowest price of the reversal candlestick formed on the 15-minute timeframe at that time. Exit Target: 44697 The above does not constitute investment advice, and I advise everyone to exercise caution and manage risks carefully in market trading. Follow me for more insights !!
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由smc_trader_kai提供
6
BTC fake new bull好久沒有特別寫一篇BTC 今天來寫一下為什麼我上一篇寫到有機會到38000 特別是經歷了昨天的fake new bull 先說一下我的觀點 很有機會再上攻 但是要配合美股 而且攻完後很有機會像我先前說的 到點立即瀑布 另外一個滿足的條件是我認為需要再回測一波 it's been a long time since I wrote a special piece about BTC. Today, I'll talk about why in my previous article, I mentioned the possibility of it reaching 38,000, especially after experiencing the fake news bull market yesterday. First, let me express my viewpoint. There is a good chance for another upward move, but it would likely require alignment with the performance of the U.S. stock market. Furthermore, after this potential upward move, there is a high likelihood of a rapid decline, similar to what I previously mentioned as an BNC:BLX abrupt 'waterfall' scenario Another fulfilling condition is that I believe there needs to be another round of retesting “前情提要” "Previously" BTC 最近上下插針的很嚴重 主要是流動性問題 中長期來說分歧很大 建議是短線操作 因為在流動性不足的情況下 我認為所謂的牛要回來很困難 因為連股市都不好了 要資金進來更難 會有所謂的小瘋牛我同意 但是目前情況真牛不可能 我個人估計 +-38500 大約是可能潛在的頂部 但是時間上有點難達成了 尤其是目前情勢上有困難 Lately, there has been a lot of volatility. Mainly due to liquidity issues. In the medium to long term, there is a lot of divergence. My recommendation is short-term trading because in the absence of liquidity, I believe it's very difficult for the so-called bull market to return. Even a small "crazy bull" I agree with, but currently, a true bull market is unlikely. I personally estimate around +-38500 is a possible potential top, but it's a bit difficult to achieve, especially given the current situation. 我先來肢解一下我的方式 先設定一下POE 2020/11/26-今天 然後設置水平線標記 First, let me break down my approach. I'll start by setting a timeframe for POE from November 26, 2020, to today, and then I'll place horizontal line markers. 接下來/And 2020/11/26-2022/05/12 2022/05/12-Today 做完後可以得到一份完整的POE圖表 接下來就是畫趨勢線 我個人一直認為2021-9到12月是假突破 所以我的趨勢線可能會不一樣 但是請你慢慢看下去 另外前底部我是2021-1-4號為起點 連到5-19底部 After completing all step, you can get a complete chart of POE. Next is to draw a trendline. Personally, I've always believed that September to December 2021 was a false breakout, so my trendlines might be different. Please take your time to look at it. Additionally, for the previous bottom, I use January 4, 2021, as the starting point and connect it to the bottom on May 19. 趨勢線完成後 請使用Fib 阻力扇 沿著趨勢線畫一道 After completing the trendline, please use the Fibonacci retracement fan along the trendline 然後在底部 （量最大） 連上2023-3月回測的底部 在一道阻力扇 Then, at the bottom (with the highest volume), connect it to the bottom from the March 2023 retest and draw another Fibonacci retracement fan 之後先把阻力扇關掉 留下趨勢線 我們知道通常三角收斂表態後 開口等於力道 請看白線 Next, turn off the Fibonacci retracement fans and keep the trendline. We know that usually, after a triangular convergence, the opening signifies strength. Please see the white line 這邊證明了 教科書是有用的 (笑) This demonstrates that textbooks are useful (chuckles). 那是否可以用來推論 2021/7月的上漲幅的 （藍線) 同時可以把之前的POE打開一起看 是否發現這個區域 （38317-40151） 非常的糾結 配合上傳統11-12美股轉強加上選舉因素 我才會認為有一個漲幅空間 Can we use this to infer the upward movement in July 2021 (the blue line)? You can also open the previous POE chart and see if you notice this range (38317-40151). It's quite tangled, combined with the traditional strength in the U.S. stock market during November-December and election factors. This is why I believe there is room for an upward movement. 接下來在打開阻力扇 通常上下趨勢交界的時候都有比較大的波幅 只是沒想到會是fake news 但是這證明了一件事情 這個市場目前是被嚴重操作 以目前的情況我認為年底前 配合美股還有 機會 上漲 區域範圍就如我上篇提到的38500 （38317-40151） 但是壞新聞來了 如果局勢繼續走低 尤其是美國情況無法短時間轉向 國際紛爭無法有共識 最壞情況請看下圖 尤其如果真的走向我提到的失落10年 （話說 最近華爾街也開始有人提到這個觀點） However, this proves one thing: the current market is heavily manipulated. Given the current situation, I believe there is a chance for an upward movement by the end of the year, in the range as mentioned in my previous article, 38,500 (38317-40151). But here comes the bad news. If the situation continues to worsen, especially if the U.S. situation doesn't turn around quickly and there is no consensus on international disputes, please see the worst-case scenario in this chart. Especially if it truly leads to the 'Lost Decade' as I mentioned. (By the way, recently, even Wall Street has begun to discuss this possibility.) 當然這個會是很極端的情況下 需要很多情況配合 只是單純分享一下 最壞可能會到什麼程度 Of course, this is an extremely extreme scenario that requires a lot of conditions to align. I'm just sharing what the worst-case scenario might look like."
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由Icykerker提供
BTC / ETH weekly analysis (20230614)CA 市場周分析 BTCUSDT 經歷過假日的下跌過後，BTC跑了一個下降楔型，也獲得兩次的支撐測試，代表市場有對於價格做了下跌反抗，但這邊要注意的是因為這條趨勢支撐線測試太多次，因此若跌破有可能不會產生回踩，對於跌破可以偏空思考，目前對於上漲機會還有待確認。 ETHUSDT ETH 反而沒有那麼好判斷，但可以發現支撐下移，代表ETH 市場是有在做趨勢轉換，但這邊請留意假跌破，也就是5/12 4:00的 1740 低點做假跌破，因此要做空的可以等待價格反彈到相對壓力去布局。 BTCUSDT After the holiday-induced downturn, BTC formed a descending wedge pattern and underwent two support tests. This indicates that the market has resisted the price decline. However, it is important to note that due to multiple tests of this trend support line, if it is breached, there may not be a significant retracement. Therefore, a bearish perspective can be considered if it breaks below. Currently, the opportunities for an upward movement still require confirmation. ETHUSDT ETH, on the other hand, is not as easy to determine. However, it can be observed that the support has shifted downwards, indicating a potential trend reversal in the ETH market. But here, it's important to note the false breakdown, specifically the low point at 1740 on May 12th at 4:00. For those looking to short, it would be advisable to wait for price to rebound to relative resistance levels before positioning.
由Crypto-Arsenal提供
BTC / ETH weekly analysis (20230605)BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P BTC 上次有提到回踩後如果有成功被支撐線 (藍線) 撐住，有機會繼續上行，但經過回踩失敗後也跌破 27,480 價位作出支撐轉換為壓力，在小時區要注意下跌風險 。 BINANCE:ETHUSDT.P ETH 回踩有機會失敗 (因為時間太久產生能量耗弱)，在 30 min - 1H 圖表中也出現小級別的頂部；回到 2H 也出現更大的頂部，因此以太坊的價格風險要比 BTC 來的大 。 BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P Last time, it was mentioned that if BTC successfully finds support (blue line) after a retracement, there is a chance for further upside movement. However, following a failed retracement, it has also broken below the 27,480 support level, which has now turned into resistance. In the hourly timeframe, it is important to be cautious of downside risks. BINANCE:ETHUSDT.P There is a possibility of a failed retracement for ETH (due to prolonged time leading to weak momentum). Additionally, a smaller-scale top has appeared on the 30-minute to 1-hour chart. On the 2-hour chart, a larger-scale top has also formed. Therefore, the price risk for Ethereum is greater compared to BTC. BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P
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由Crypto-Arsenal提供
Op Team's Report今天會用「Fibonacci Retracement」來分析金價走勢。黃金由8月16日的低位1160.39美元/盎司，升至10月26日高位1243.48美元/盎司，升了83美元/盎司，直至昨日，金價回落至1212美元/盎司水平，十分貼近「Fibonacci Retracement」的38.2%（附圖青綠色線示），該水平為1212.23美元/盎司，然後隨即反彈至今天中午1218美元/盎司。所以本團隊認為由於金價已從昨日低位反彈了超過6美元/盎司，做多的利潤空間不多，值博率不高，多頭投資者可等待金價再次回調至「Fibonacci Retracement」的38.2%（附圖青綠色線示）1212.23美元/盎司附近才進場。較有耐性的多頭投資者，可選擇等待金價調整至「Fibonacci Retracement」的50%（附圖綠色線示），即1202美元/盎司才做多。只要金價能守穩上升軌（附圖紫色線示），總體上升趨勢仍然不變，投資者應有技術地捕捉金價回調時帶來的機會。
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由Selena_Op提供
BTC / ETH weekly analysis (20230529)CA 加密貨幣市場周分析 BINANCE:BTCUSDT BTC 如同上周所說的，ETH 拉升讓 BTC 也跟著拉升，目前 BTC 有出現一個下降通道，價格有回落的話，關注 27,480 的價位是否有支撐，如果有，有大的機率會向上突破通道，如果上周有開做多的倉位，可以設置倉位保護止損 。 BINANCE:ETHUSDT 與 BTC 不同，ETH 正走在一個下降楔型，楔型突破所帶來的能量遠比通道來的強烈，並且 ETH 已突破楔型，目前關注是否價格回踩（測試），攸關後續上行強度；如果回踩成功並上行，目標價位在 2,019 左右 。 BINANCE:BTCUSDT As mentioned last week, BTC followed the upward movement of ETH, but it is currently experiencing a downward channel. If the price retraces, you should pay attention to whether the support at 27,480 holds. If it does, there is a high probability of breaking out of the channel to the upside. If you opened long positions last week, it is advisable to set position protection stop-loss orders. BINANCE:ETHUSDT Unlike BTC, ETH is forming a descending wedge pattern. The energy generated by a wedge pattern breakout is much stronger than that of a channel. Moreover, ETH has already broken out of the wedge pattern. Currently, we need to observe if there is a price retracement (testing) and its impact on the subsequent upward strength. If the retracement is successful and followed by an upward move, the target price is around 2,019 .
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由Crypto-Arsenal提供
IWM buy point for rest of Q1 / IWM的Q1剩餘買點 I'm not certain if the Federal Reserve will decrease interest rates in March; currently, the probability is around 50%, and I'm hesitant to make a prediction. According to Tom Lee's forecast, if the IWM ends above 300 by the end of 2024, there could be a potential increase of over 50%. I'm considering investing 15% of my portfolio in TNA to potentially gain 150% or more, especially if the price follows a consistent upward trajectory. Given the significantly different macroeconomic environment compared to 2023 and 2022, I believe that the IWM is unlikely to reach a new low since 2021. My immediate goal is to enter TNA at favorable prices. I anticipate that the IWM may revisit the 188-190 range due to a pullback in the SPX and QQQ. If the pullback is substantial or if the probability of a rate cut in March decreases, it could decline even further. I intend to purchase IWM at 188, 184, 180, and 172, aligning with Fibonacci retracement levels, with each price point representing a 1/4 position. If the price does not drop as anticipated, I will consider buying during a breakout to achieve higher highs. My plan is to acquire all TNA positions before the end of March. ---------------------------------------- 我不確定三月份美聯儲是否會降息，目前機率大約是50%，我不想去打賭。根據湯姆·李的預測，如果截至2024年底IWM結束在300以上，可能會有超過50%的上升空間。我想嘗試用我的15%投資組合來賭TNA能獲得150%的收益（如果價格一直直線上漲可能會更多）。考慮到2023年和2022年的宏觀環境與眾不同，我認為自2021年以來IWM不太可能再次創造新低。我的當前任務是以合適價格進入TNA。 我認為IWM可能會因為SPX和QQQ的回調再次測試188-190，如果回調更大或三月份降息的機率降低，它可能會跌得更低。我打算在188、184、180和172加碼IWM，符合斐波那契回撤。每個價位佔1/4倉位。如果價格不會下降那麼低，我會考慮在突破時買入以實現高點。我的計劃是在三月底前購入所有TNA倉位。
AMEX:IWM看空
由serenityjohnlai提供
ETH 多空交戰？ What do you think ab ETH ?這裡可以看到4小時級別中有一個看跌訂單塊 並且底下還可以看到一個原來看漲的訂單塊，後來被跌破之後目前價格正在回來測試這個區域，有可能成為破壞塊促使價格向下運行 目前在整體的黃線上升趨勢中，出現了我標示紅線走勢的一段回調整理 這邊可以看到原來的上升趨勢暫時被空頭破壞了結構形成了繼多頭趨勢以來第一次四小時級別的 CHOCH + BOS 我認為我標示藍線這段是可以做一個短空單的交易計劃 目標出場價格 TP1 ：2142 值得關注的是目標出廠價格可能是保守估計，因為在下方2115 - 2145這段區間還有一個 公允價值缺口未被緩解，我預期價格可能會下跌到這附近再來觀察行情是否要繼續往上走或往下 Here, you can see a bearish order block on the 4-hour timeframe. Below that, there is a former bullish order block that, after being breached, the current price is retesting. This area might become a breakdown block, prompting a downward price movement. Currently, within the overall upward trend marked by the yellow line, there's a phase of retracement and consolidation indicated by the red line. It's noticeable that the original upward trend has been temporarily disrupted by a bearish move, forming the first 4-hour level CHOCH + BOS since the continuation of the bull trend. I believe the segment marked by the blue line presents an opportunity for a short position in the trading plan. Short Target Exit Price (TP1): 2142 It's worth noting that the target exit price might be a conservative estimate. In the range of 2115 - 2145 below, there is a fair value gap that hasn't been filled. I anticipate the price might decline to this vicinity, and then we can observe whether the market will continue upward or downward.
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由smc_trader_kai提供
4
DOTUSDT 大空頭起跌開始？在經過前一段時間黃線標示的上升的結構之後，今天的紅線下跌趨勢一次拿走了12/12 - 12/16 的多頭流動性，因此我們可以預期價格在這幾天可能會進行小幅度的上升回調 並且很明顯的我們可以看到產生了4H 多方結構改變為空方加上空方結構延續。 針對這個部分我目前的交易計劃會等價格回調到發生結構改變的這個空方訂單塊區域 7.192 - 7.328 這區間再來做空單的進場觀察。 After the ascending structure marked by the yellow line in the previous period, today's red line downward trend took away the bullish liquidity from 12/12 to 12/16. Therefore, we can anticipate a minor upward retracement in the price over the next few days. It is evident that a shift from a bullish to bearish structure has occurred on the 4-hour chart, and the bearish structure is continuing. Regarding this aspect, my current trading plan involves waiting for the price to retrace to the bearish order block area where the structural change occurred, ranging from 7.192 to 7.328. I will observe for a potential entry point for a short position within this range.
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由smc_trader_kai提供
1
📉 Solana分析: 展开新场景 🚀由于Solana的反应未如预期，可能回撤至51.32美元或更低，我们调整了我们的情景。它暗示了一个ABC校正，特别是一个3-3-5的结构，用于B波，随后是可能达到Fibonacci retracement的100%至138%的C波，至少在51.32美元至44.90美元之间。这是正常的，不足为虑。 在这次校正之后，上涨趋势应该会恢复，有可能上升至75-80美元，然后再次进行下一次校正。我会随时向您发送更新，并在需要时发送限价单。然而，如果我们处于B波上升趋势中，我将不会做空，因为这可能会显著延长。 📉🚀
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由stromm_by_wmc提供
DXY/SPX/DJI/NDQ/BTC 最近雜事很多 週末時間又多在家庭生活 晚上都累累懶懶的 雖然一直覺得不能這樣下去 但是還是提不起精神 不過昨晚的中東情勢突然有了大變化 今天強迫自己無論如何都要來一篇才能對的起自己 Recently, there have been a lot of miscellaneous matters. On weekends, I have more time for family life. That makes me feel tired and lazy in the evenings. Although I've been feeling that I can't continue like this, I still can't muster the energy. However, there was a sudden major change in the Middle East situation last night. So today, I forced myself to write something no matter what to justify myself. 目前因為中東問題 我原本認為在一波的小牛可能不會到來 很可惜的還沒跑就提前結束 當然以線論線來說 還是可以有點期待 但是這都要看下禮拜的國際反應 而且會是短線上的操作而已 Due to the current Middle East situation, I originally believed that a small bull market wave might come. Unfortunately, it seems to have ended prematurely. Of course, when it comes to technical analysis, there is still some hope, but it all depends on international reactions next week. This would likely be short-term trading. DXY 上篇提到回調 但還是強勢上漲了一段才開始回落 在未發生衝突前回落的幅度可以預期 但是現在看來很有可能會直接續攻 這會影響到美股及其他經濟走勢 縮小日線來看 沒有到我預定的位置才開始回調 但是目前是已經到第一個位置 很巧的是剛好就有衝突發生 如果下週續跌 注意原本的壓力區 （長藍色線底） 應該到這附近就會反轉 繼續往230426規劃的區域邁進 In the previous post, I mentioned a retracement, but it continued to rise strongly before starting to pull back. The magnitude of the pullback can be expected before any conflict occurs, but now it seems very likely to continue rising directly. This will affect the US stock market and other economic trends. Looking at the daily chart, it didn't start to pull back until it reached the area I had planned. But now it has already reached the first position. It's quite coincidental that a conflict has occurred. If it continues to decline next week, pay attention to the original resistance zone (long blue line bottom). It should reverse around this area and continue towards the area planned at 230426. 大方向來說 不同模型估算出來的目標區域我已經表示出來 裡面的日期是我今天重新標註的日期 其實這個是早幾個月前就規劃出來的 只是沒有特別註明 In terms of the overall direction, I've already indicated the target areas estimated by different models. The dates inside are the ones I re-marked today, but this was planned several months ago. I just didn't specify it explicitly. DJI 之前預估的區域有到 畢竟我畫的區域真的很寬（笑臉） 也很順利的在1/2線中徘徊（之前畫的圖編號不一樣） 現在向下突破拉回 在中東升級前 我認為回到2不是問題 但是現在看來可能連1都會是問題 下禮拜看情勢發展 如果很快速的有解決方式 那突破2去摸上方頂部只是piece of cake The previously estimated area has been reached. After all, the area I drew is really wide (laughs). It has also been hovering around the 1/2 line smoothly (the previous chart had a different numbering). Now it has broken down and pulled back. Before the escalation in the Middle East, I thought going back to 2 wouldn't be a problem, but now it seems that even 1 might be a problem. I'll see how the situation develops next week. If there's a quick solution, then breaking through 2 to touch the top should be a piece of cake. NDQ 好像沒什麼好解釋 上一篇都講完了 大致上跟DJI一樣 上方過一不過下降或框 下方還是先等碰到橘色區域 It seems there's not much to explain. I covered it in the previous post. In general, it's similar to DJI. Passing above is good, failing below or consolidating. I'm still waiting for it to touch the orange area below. SPX 忽然發現青色線很管用 破了直接下去 而且還突破原本規劃的藍色水平短線 目前雖然強勢拉一根 但是最後還是收在我認為的牛熊轉換線L1之下 這個不是個好訊號 一樣 看下週情勢 但是就算上漲 要注意青色線 另外很有可能連壓力區都上不去 (+-4390) 原則上 我還是計畫去看下面的框框區域 I suddenly realized that the blue line is effective. Once it's broken, it goes down directly, and it has also broken the originally planned blue horizontal short line. Although it's currently showing strength with a single candle, it's still below what I consider the bull-bear conversion line L1. This is not a good signal. Again, I'll watch the situation next week. But even if it goes up, watch out for the blue line. It's also very likely that it won't even reach the resistance zone (+-4390). In principle, I still plan to look at the lower boxed area. BTC 最近上下插針的很嚴重 主要是流動性問題 中長期來說分歧很大 建議是短線操作 因為在流動性不足的情況下 我認為所謂的牛要回來很困難 因為連股市都不好了 要資金進來更難 會有所謂的小瘋牛我同意 但是目前情況真牛不可能 我個人估計 +-38500 大約是可能潛在的頂部 但是時間上有點難達成了 尤其是目前情勢上有困難 Lately, there has been a lot of volatility. Mainly due to liquidity issues. In the medium to long term, there is a lot of divergence. My recommendation is short-term trading because in the absence of liquidity, I believe it's very difficult for the so-called bull market to return. Even a small "crazy bull" I agree with, but currently, a true bull market is unlikely. I personally estimate around +-38500 is a possible potential top, but it's a bit difficult to achieve, especially given the current situation. ========================================================== 這邊稍微提一下 關於中東 個人認為情勢可能不容樂觀 局勢升級的可能性比較高 一方面以色列算是半外來政權，尤其是當美國單方面把模糊空間打破。 這也是為什麼原本處於內鬥中的阿拉伯半島會坐下來談，絕對不是單純因為中國的幫助和談那麼簡單。 從歷史來看 美國在各地放置/扶植的政權原本就是為了在適當時機拖累當地發展。 熟知的南北韓，南北越，東西德，台灣，阿富汗，以色列，烏克蘭等 都是 但以目前來看 同時要開這麼多戰場，而且對手都不是小國的情況下 很容易演變到不可收拾的局面。 過往的情況是沒有匹敵的對手。局勢容易控制 收獲都可以再短期內馬上填補戰爭時期的損失。 而且有效的拖累其他國家的發展。 但是現在美國本身處於內政不穩，且對手(聯盟)國力屆不弱的情況下 搞不好一有閃失，以後看股票就是看亞洲股市了 以目前來說 表態的國家除了少數幾個國家 大部分都屬於美系國家 原因很明顯 利益問題 世界的不穩是西方穩定獲利的基石 所以我判斷 歐洲國家會口頭上雙面支持烏克蘭以色列 但是私底下會放棄烏克蘭轉而引導到以色列 而美國會轉而支持烏克蘭多餘以色列 至於原本被認定最危險的亞洲方面 雖然不願意面對 但很有可能在烏克蘭及以色列最激烈時 再爆發一場預期中但不想面對的戰爭 I'll briefly mention here that, in my personal opinion, the situation in the Middle East may not be optimistic, and the likelihood of an escalation in the situation is relatively high. On one hand, Israel can be considered a semi-external power, especially when the United States unilaterally disrupts the blurred space. This is also why the warring factions in the Arabian Peninsula, which were previously in internal conflicts, have come to the negotiation table. It's definitely not as simple as just China's assistance and negotiations. From a historical perspective, the United States has placed/supported regimes around the world originally with the intention of impeding local development at the right time. Well-known examples include North and South Korea, North and South Vietnam, East and West Germany, Taiwan, Afghanistan, Israel, Ukraine, and more. However, looking at the current situation, simultaneously opening up so many battlefields and facing opponents who are not small countries can easily lead to an uncontrollable situation. In the past, there was no rival that could match the United States, and the situation was easy to control. The gains could be replenished immediately in the short term during wartime. It was also effective in hindering the development of other countries. But now, the United States itself is experiencing internal instability, and its opponents (allied nations) are not weak. In case of any missteps, in the future, watching the stock market might mean looking at Asian stock markets. As of now, most of the countries that have taken a stance belong to the American camp, with only a few exceptions. The reason is clear: it's an issue of interests. The instability of the world serves as the cornerstone for the profits of the Western world. Therefore, I judge that European countries will verbally support both Ukraine and Israel but will privately abandon Ukraine and guide toward Israel. The United States, on the other hand, will shift its support from Israel to Ukraine. As for the initially perceived most dangerous aspect in Asia, even though no one wants to face it, it's highly likely that, during the most intense periods in Ukraine and Israel, another war that is expected but not wanted could break out. TVC:DXY DJ:DJI SP:SPX TVC:NDQ CRYPTO:BTCUSD
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TVC:DXY看空
由Icykerker提供
1
BTC going up or down? Review from last session (4/27): There were two orange arrows indicating a similar magnitude to the AB=CD pattern, which leaned towards a 5-wave structure. However, the possibility of human intervention was high due to the first wave breaking. Additionally, the volume did not increase, which is another indication of intervention. There was a symmetrical pattern in the structure, and if it is valid, there is a chance of touching the upper side. At the same time, the 5-wave structure is completed. However, it is uncertain whether there will be a big pullback before another attack. If there is, it is important to pay attention to the three red lines in the white arrow. The downward trend line (left to right) has a high degree of stickiness, and it is likely to oscillate back and forth. The departure volume will be strong. The line below the upward trend is the key to whether the bull will continue or not. If it breaks, be cautious of the bear's comeback. However, the pullback should not be too deep. In principle, it should be within the light-colored box or touch the orange Yin-Yang line to continue the attack. The line above is the bullish pressure. If it cannot be attacked, there is a high probability of a quick pullback. As expected, it came back to touch the orange line and bounced back. There is a chance of short-term attack. Let's talk about the overall direction first. I changed the highly sticky red line to purple (some people said it would be easier to understand if I changed the color). When attacking again, pay special attention to this line. If it is unsuccessful, it will be a disaster. Especially if tested multiple times, the reaction will be more intense. In principle, whether it is up or down, it is within the range of the two red lines. In judging, pay attention to whether the volume has increased. If the volume is still shrinking, be careful when attacking. In the short term, pay attention to whether the short orange line can stand on the retracement and continue to attack. If it can reach the long orange line, it is normal to start the market. Stop loss can be set at the dotted line or short orange line. It depends on individual tolerance. In principle, it is still bullish until June. However, there will still be some fluctuations in the short term. The key to stop loss is to control risk. Although it may miss some opportunities, it will not lose in the long run. BINANCE:BTCUSDT 上期回顧 (4/27) 兩個橘箭頭 AB=CD 等幅度相近 甚至還多一些 偏向5浪結構 但一浪破位 人為操作的可能性偏大 另外量能沒有加大 也是判定是操作的原因 結構上有左右對稱的型態 如果成立上方有機會去摸 同時也完成5浪結構 唯獨是否會在來一個大回調 再攻 如果有就要注意白色箭頭那三條紅線 下降趨勢那條(左斜到右) 這條黏性很高高機率會來回盤一下 伴隨著離開量能會很強 上升趨勢下面那一條是能否續牛的關鍵 破了就要小心熊回頭 但回調應該不會走到那麼深 原則上淡色框內或碰觸橘色陰陽線 就會續攻 上面那條是多方壓力 如果攻不上 很大機率回抽會很快速 算是如預期 回來摸了橘色線就回彈 短線上再攻的機會有 先談大方向 黏性很高的紅線我改成紫色（有人反應換個顏色比較好懂） 再次上攻要特別注意這條線 不成功便成仁 特別是測試愈多次 反應會越劇烈 原則上 不管是上下 區間還是在還是上下兩條紅線內 判斷上 注意量能是否有放大 如果還是量縮上攻就要注意 短線上關注短橘線能否站上回測再往上續攻 如果能上長橘線 那開始盤一下都正常 而止損就設在虛線部份或短橘線皆可 端看個人承受能力 原則上還是看多到6月 只是短期震盪還是會有一定幅度 對於止損要拿捏好 以降低風險的角度來看 設保守雖然會錯失一些機會 但是長期而言是不會損失的 共勉之
INDEX:BTCUSD
由Icykerker提供
小那反彈潛在 TP 區 (以 SMA、Fib Retracement 為基礎)根據今年全部的反彈走勢及做出高低點當時的情緒，假設這波反彈成立，在 11/3 前，12000、12500 可能是幾個理想的 TP 點。 # 技術角度 2022 下跌過程的幾次反彈中，高點為 0、低點為 1 時，0.382 都是反轉前的高點。對應這波反彈，高點在 12500 附近。 以前 2 次 CPI 公布超爛數據為低點 (Fib 0)，然後 SNAP 財報爆雷前為高點 (Fib 1)，在上次的反彈中，反轉點在 Fib 的常用級別之一 - 1.618。這個點目前在 12000 左右。 過去 2 年的日線 128 SMA 都提供了有力的支撐 / 壓力。這個點預計會在幾天內進入 12000~12500 的範圍。 # 籌碼角度 近期市場 Put OI 比 Call OI 還高，人多的地方危險。 # 時間角度 10/24~10/28 有 (10/26 AM 4) MSFT 、 GOOGL 、(10/27 AM 4) META 、 AMZN 、(10/28 AM 4) AAPL 的財報。現階段因為 NFLX 及各銀行股開出來的財報都不是太差，投資人比較不會對財報雞蛋裡挑骨頭。市場情緒偏好時，上漲機會較大。 10/27 PM 8:30 的失業申請人數、10/28 PM 8:30 的 PCE、11/1 PM 10:00 的 ISM PMI、11/2 PM 8:15 的 ADP 就業人數可能會造成短時間內的下跌。考量 CPI 這麼爛的數據都可以拉升這麼多，甚至準備開啟一波反彈，這幾個數據利空只要有拉回起跌點都不太會是大問題。 上次 (8 月中) 終結反彈是鮑爾說話 / FOMC 會議記錄公布前後。如果這次利用同樣邏輯，終結反彈的契機應該就會是 11/3 AM 2 的 FOMC 利率決議。 以上僅供娛樂，看看就好。
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CME_MINI:NQ1!看多
由RaenonX提供
3
BIT目前正在低位三角收斂，等待突破趨勢線後的進場機會！BIT從2021/12/4形成低點之後，走勢呈現一個三角收斂(圖中較大的三角收斂)，此三角收斂在2022/1/22跌破趨勢線，價位來到斐波那契數列1.407進行反彈。 價位反彈之後形成一個較小的三角收斂，以低點1.414和高點1.662拉出Fib retracement，可以看到價位目前在阻力1.509(0.618)下方。 目前4小時週期的均線呈現空頭排列，等待三角收斂向上突破趨勢線並配合均線黃金交叉，可視為進場做多訊號！ 您的看法如何呢？ 歡迎留言跟我們分享！
B
由DannyC914提供
Test33，(123法則範例的後篇) 賣得好才是高手嗎...?這篇是解說買入後，該在哪裡獲利或止損? 還有碎碎唸 獲利 首先，小週期的 123法則 是逆勢交易 主要做的是反轉區間&趨勢轉折的起頭 30MIN連續K棒 是1個月的走勢 (使用TRADING VIEW 左下角點擊1M/月)，我定義為為"短線"，因此盈利止損要很明確 莫好高騖遠。 我們可以結合趨勢的頂底部製出Fibonacci retracement 可以得到一些神的"恩典" 做為短線獲利點。(圖中標記) 止損 由於點2沒有去試探 我們可以順理成章把止損上移 至 紅色小虛線 !0.0! 這邊的止損可以放置你開心的位置(承受得住的傷害)就好 風險承受得越多，預期回報要看更高 通常我不會只放在前低 因為很大概率會被掃除流動性 我會刻意放置在比較前低更加悠閒的位置 以上是邏輯上的解說 而那些老師傅都沒跟你說該怎麼才能賣得好(人群狂熱的時候就已經供貨了) 趨勢是DOW THEORY交易的核心 我們遵守趨勢 你會在不同時間週期中看到各種趨勢與各種反轉的風騷走位 碎唸 圖表的繪製與創作其實是很自由的 是藝術 你的支撐壓力線不一定要畫在他們告訴你的 "K線的最下面或上面連線"， 你可以試著連續貫穿不同K棒頂底 甚至也可以是一個空白區間 指著過去說未來就是怎麼樣 我覺得GUAL PII不通， 歷史從沒有重演 他們只是看著挺像 市場是人性組成的，任何底線只要連續觸碰多次 最終會破碎 然而 大趨勢 要等12月底收定後才能更好判斷，這個收線一次完成日，周，月，年，是很重要的訊息 機構 投機者 投資者 分析師 還有像妳一樣的帥哥美女都很重視這件事情的 對吧 新年快樂 Happy New Year 唷
COINBASE:BTCUSD
由sixttylink提供
2020/4/1 BTC/USD多空看法在4小時級別中 可以看到價格沿著向降通道不斷下探 即將碰到上升通道的下緣 目前在費波納西數列的0.5(6238.5)附近震盪 多方: 可以觀察是否在是否有機會在回測上升趨勢線還有0.382(6145)得到支撐 空方: 可以觀察是否跌破上升趨勢 但是在箱底的部分可能會有支撐 抑或跌破相抵再空單進場 目前可能撐壓 R :7914(D) R :7212(W) R:6316(D) S:5629(W) S:3730(D)   In the 4h chart It goes to fib retracement 0.5(6238.5) and might touch the bottom of the uptrend channel Long Position: We can observe the bottom of the uptrend channel and 0.382(6145) if the can be support Short Position: If it breakout bottom of the uptrend chabnnel There miight be support at bottom of the purple box The resist and support in my plan R :7914(D) R :7212(W) R:6316(D) S:5629(W) S:3730(D) 
BYBIT:BTCUSD.P
由Rex_yang提供
1
短線歐元的交易機會看盤看盤 如果看盤看久了還沒有想法 看不懂市場與Kbar要帶給你的訊息 那： 1.代表你訓練不足，或是練習不夠(各種型態大概一眼就可以辨認) 2.假設你啥都懂，但判斷走勢仍然不明，代表你缺乏交易系統的核心哲學 我曾經聽過到一段音樂老師跟學生的對話 學生：「老師，我不懂!」 老師慢慢地頓了頓回答他說：「技巧，老師可以教你，練習即可；但是音符排列組成的靈魂，你得自己去體悟。」 靈魂的體悟，說的真好 體悟乃融會貫通的表現 乃是核心哲學立場的彰顯 有些人辯才無礙乃是因為對知識了解通徹，立場明確 自然怎樣都問不倒他 這也是為什麼我把工作內容直接公開的原因 讓更多人有機會窺見交易技術這一門學問 某程度上，我公開的是方法 有靈活貫通的人才自然可以透過觀點而大成，那是上上之材 上上之材稀少若斯 不在我這管道吸收也會找到管道自學而成的 但透過我這兩個月超過100篇文章 技巧，每一篇可能都有 立場、哲學則是貫穿在這100篇之中 在我的視頻中可能更加通透 enderpdic Anyway 有緣人自成一格 大天使走過人間 ==================================== 歐元價位走神點projection sell retracement 0.38 % 估計價位下行 積極的操作 現價高點為止損目標h1前低 保守的操作 預留震盪空間若圖示 Ender Enderpdic
看空
由enderpdic提供
美元發威的同時，遇見到黃金潛在的多頭力道在昨天的視頻中有提到 北京時間0800收了一根射擊之星的美元指數 大幅度的提高美元上行的機率 當然，昨夜的歐元走勢便是因為這一力道使然而下行 有趣的是在美元走強的同時間 在關鍵阻力的黃金期貨 並沒有受到空頭狙擊 這是重要的資訊對於交易員來說 預告著黃金一波的向上攻擊 於是我的計劃如下： 途中我有尋找兩個關鍵阻力：一上一下 向上貫穿之後尋找到止損點位：通常地尋找方法可用m30 h1的Kbar low or 起漲點，估計大概5~800pips左右 目標 sell retracement 的0.38%回撤 計劃完成 就等待發生Ender 搜尋Enderpdic
TVC:GOLD看多
由enderpdic提供