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HMA Z-Score Probability Indicator by Erika Barker

This indicator is a modified version of SteverSteves's original work, enhanced by Erika Barker. It visually represents asset price movements in terms of standard deviations from a Hull Moving Average (HMA), commonly known as a Z-Score.

Key Features:

Z-Score Calculation: Measures how many standard deviations the current price is from its HMA.
Hull Moving Average (HMA): This moving average provides a more responsive baseline for Z-Score calculations.
Flexible Display: Offers both area and candlestick visualization options for the Z-Score.
Probability Zones: Color-coded areas showing the statistical likelihood of prices based on their Z-Score.
Dynamic Price Level Labels: Displays actual price levels corresponding to Z-Score values.
Z-Table: An optional table showing the probability of occurrence for different Z-Score ranges.
Standard Deviation Lines: Horizontal lines at each standard deviation level for easy reference.

How It Works:
The indicator calculates the Z-Score by comparing the current price to its HMA and dividing by the standard deviation. This Z-Score is then plotted on a separate pane below the main chart.

Green areas/candles: Indicate prices above the HMA (positive Z-Score)
Red areas/candles: Indicate prices below the HMA (negative Z-Score)
Color-coded zones:

Green: Within 1 standard deviation (high probability)
Yellow: Between 1 and 2 standard deviations (medium probability)
Red: Beyond 2 standard deviations (low probability)

The HMA line (white) shows the trend of the Z-Score itself, offering insight into whether the asset is becoming more or less volatile over time.
Customization Options:

Adjust lookback periods for Z-Score and HMA calculations
Toggle between area and candlestick display
Show/hide probability fills, Z-Table, HMA line, and standard deviation bands
Customize text color and decimal rounding for price levels

Interpretation:
This indicator helps traders identify potential overbought or oversold conditions based on statistical probabilities. Extreme Z-Score values (beyond ±2 or ±3) often suggest a higher likelihood of mean reversion, while consistent Z-Scores in one direction may indicate a strong trend.
By combining the Z-Score with the HMA and probability zones, traders can gain a nuanced understanding of price movements relative to recent trends and their statistical significance.

發行說明

This is Version 2 of the Z-Score Probability Indicator (HMA) by Erika Barker.
Version 1 of this indicator was a heavy modification of SteverSteves' Z-score probability indicator, but I've significantly enhanced version 2 of this Z-score indicator with several professional trading features and UX improvements, while maintaining the core concept of measuring price deviations from a Hull Moving Average in terms of standard deviations.

Technical Enhancements

Adaptive Lookback Periods

Dynamically adjusts the lookback length based on market volatility
Uses longer periods in high volatility (for stability) and shorter in low volatility (for responsiveness)
Configurable minimum and maximum boundaries to prevent extreme values
Visual indicator shows the current adaptive period length

Divergence Detection System

Identifies when price makes a new high/low but the Z-Score fails to confirm
Uses a sophisticated pivot detection algorithm to reduce false signals
Configurable sensitivity threshold
Visual markers for both bullish and bearish divergences

Improved Error Handling

Protected against division by zero in standard deviation calculations
Added checks for NaN values and the first few bars where data is insufficient
More robust pivot detection to reduce false signals

Performance Optimization

Conditional calculations that only run when features are enabled
Better variable management to reduce unnecessary recalculations
More efficient code structure

User Interface Improvements

Organized Settings Menu

Settings grouped into logical categories for easier navigation
Added tooltips for better explanation of each option
Improved defaults for better out-of-the-box experience

Modernized Visual Design

Professional color scheme with Material Design-inspired colors
Customizable color settings for all visual elements
Improved contrast and readability
Enhanced probability zone visualization

Interactive Information Display

Improved Z-Score probability table with current value indicator
Clear mode indicator (Adaptive vs Fixed)
Better positioning of price level labels

Custom Alerts

Added alerts for bullish and bearish divergences
Added alerts for crossing extreme Z-Score thresholds
Custom alert messages with relevant trading information

Code Structure Improvements

Updated to Pine Script v6

Leverages the latest Pine Script features and optimizations

Better Variable Organization

Clearer variable naming conventions
More logical grouping of related calculations
Improved comments for better code maintainability

Fixed Syntax Issues

Corrected issues with multi-line function calls
Fixed variable scope problems
Added proper conditional processing

Usage Recommendations
This enhanced Z-Score indicator is particularly effective for:

Mean-reversion trading strategies
Identifying potential reversal points
Statistical analysis of price movements
Volatility-aware market analysis

For best results, combine with volume analysis and trend identification tools. The divergence detection is especially useful for finding high-probability reversal points in ranging markets.