WU Sahm Recession Indicator

2023年10月25日

The Sahm Recession Indicator devised by Economist Claudia Sahm is a rather insightful tool that captures the onset of recessions by utilizing unemployment data, which can provide more real-time insights compared to quarterly GDP reports. If the three-month simple moving average (SMA) of the unemployment rate exceeds the minimum unemployment rate of the previous 12 months by 0.5 percentage points, it indicates a high likelihood of a recession.

This script allows you to visualize this indicator and set up alerts for when this criterion indicates that a recession could be coming.

2023年11月10日

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Will not display on any other time frame than Monthly. I added also a yellow line when the signal is exactly on the threshold value.

8月4日

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Due to the use of the function ta.lowest(unrate3M, 12), which looked back only 11 months since it included the current one, the previous version was not fully accurate. I have fixed this issue.

9月5日

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Can be switch to a Threshold of 0.61% instead of the 0.5% used by Claudia Sahm.