Do you, like me, want to know when the market bottom or tops? After 4+ years in crypto and doing swing trading (weeks/months), I've come to a realization that I want to share with you, which is fairly simple:
To find bottom or top areas for cycles check how far the price action reaches below or above the daily SMA 200
A beautiful accumulation area is generally around -60% below the daily SMA.
A beautiful distribution area is generally around +60% above the daily SMA.
First things first:
the distance is calculated from the closing price (red candle) or opening price (green candle) up to the SMA in a bear market. Opening (red candle) or closing price (green candle) down the the SMA in a bull market.
While +/-60% is an average it will be more pronounced in both directions for smaller projects and less pronounced for larger ones. BTC will not drop -70% the SMA while RUNE will.
Because of this I included multiple buy/selling percentages (-50/60/70%, +40/50/60/70%). The +40% is for Bitcoin to be honest.
How to apply this simple indicator? Here are my suggestions:
A bear market will last months, so do not rush to buy when the first arrow appears. Let the first flush go by and wait for a second flush or a consolidation below the first flush. Use BTC as reference when trying to buy other coins.
If we are in a bull market and we have a crush like we did in August (2024) then by all means buy the dip at any levels shown by this indicator.
When distributing sell a part of your profits when the first arrows appear.
To make things more useful I added alerts so you can automate them for any level offered by the indicator, both for buying & selling.
Hot tips to cancel noise, especially when buying in a bear market. I use two additional incredible indicators for this kind of swing trading:
OrderBlocks are so good I can't describe it. Use it as much as you can
Open interest Suite by my favourite indicator master - Leviathan. In a bear market a few 'bearish' market blocks appear from the first indicator. When the first 'bullish' block appears you will notice a following increase in volume (simple volume indicator) coupled with a HIGH increase in open interest (green candle in the interest suite indicator).
Notes: I am not a coder and this indicator is very basic, yet functional. I am happy to take feedback and/or see how you improve on it. I know I linked the BTC chart. Feel free to try any other chart to confirm my idea: - TETUSD - CROWNSOL - RLBUSDT - SYNUSDT - UNIUSDT - RIOUSDT These are random ones that I chose to show both the bear market buying point & the 'buy the dip' scenario
Finally it's important to understand where to look is filtering through coins/tokens that haven't just tanked upon release and not moved. Look for those that went through a full cycle (bull/bear) and is still active.