CoinDome Recession Indicator

2024年8月15日

This indicator was built by CoinDome in collaboration with Quantum Research. More information at https://coindome.de

The CoinDome Recession Indicator is a meticulously crafted financial tool designed for serious investors and analysts who seek to anticipate macroeconomic downturns with precision. By leveraging a dual-layered analytical approach, this indicator combines the intricate dynamics of the Yield Curve inversion and the Federal Funds Rate movements to signal the onset of recessions with remarkable accuracy.

Core Mechanics:

1. Yield Curve Analysis:
The indicator precisely calculates the spread between the 10-Year and 2-Year U.S. Treasury yields, a classic measure of market sentiment regarding future economic conditions. A positive crossover of this spread, signifying the end of an inversion, is a pivotal signal used by the indicator. Historically, yield curve inversions have been a reliable precursor to economic slowdowns, and their normalization often precedes a recessionary phase.

2. Federal Funds Rate Dynamics:
In parallel, the CoinDome Recession Indicator monitors the Federal Funds Rate, focusing on its first decline after a sustained period of stability (at least one year). This decline often reflects shifts in monetary policy aimed at counteracting emerging economic weaknesses. The timing of this rate decline is critical, as it often aligns with early-stage economic contractions.

Integrated Signal Generation:

The indicator triggers a recession signal only when both of these critical events—the Yield Curve normalization and the Federal Funds Rate decline—occur within a closely defined timeframe of three years. This dual confirmation method minimizes false signals, ensuring that the indicator only alerts to genuine recessionary conditions. To enhance predictive power, the recession signal is plotted three months in advance, giving investors a proactive edge in adjusting their portfolios.

Visual Precision:

Upon activation, the CoinDome Recession Indicator marks the chart with a clearly visible "Recession" label. This visual cue is designed to be unmissable, ensuring that users can instantly recognize and respond to the impending economic downturn.

User Experience:

The CoinDome Recession Indicator is optimized for the Monthly timeframe, with built-in safeguards that alert users if the chart is not set to the correct timeframe. This ensures that the indicator operates under optimal conditions, delivering the most reliable and relevant signals.

Why CoinDome?

In the complex world of financial markets, where timing is everything, the CoinDome Recession Indicator offers a sophisticated, research-driven approach to economic forecasting. Its dual-layer confirmation process, based on well-established economic principles, makes it an indispensable tool for anyone seeking to stay ahead of the curve in anticipating recessions.

2024年8月15日

發行說明

This indicator was built by CoinDome in collaboration with Quantum Research. More information at https://coindome.de

The CoinDome Recession Indicator is a meticulously crafted financial tool designed for serious investors and analysts who seek to anticipate macroeconomic downturns with precision. By leveraging a dual-layered analytical approach, this indicator combines the intricate dynamics of the Yield Curve inversion and the Federal Funds Rate movements to signal the onset of recessions with remarkable accuracy.

Core Mechanics:

1. Yield Curve Analysis:
The indicator precisely calculates the spread between the 10-Year and 2-Year U.S. Treasury yields, a classic measure of market sentiment regarding future economic conditions. A positive crossover of this spread, signifying the end of an inversion, is a pivotal signal used by the indicator. Historically, yield curve inversions have been a reliable precursor to economic slowdowns, and their normalization often precedes a recessionary phase.

2. Federal Funds Rate Dynamics:
In parallel, the CoinDome Recession Indicator monitors the Federal Funds Rate, focusing on its first decline after a sustained period of stability (at least one year). This decline often reflects shifts in monetary policy aimed at counteracting emerging economic weaknesses. The timing of this rate decline is critical, as it often aligns with early-stage economic contractions.

Integrated Signal Generation:

The indicator triggers a recession signal only when both of these critical events—the Yield Curve normalization and the Federal Funds Rate decline—occur within a closely defined timeframe of three years. This dual confirmation method minimizes false signals, ensuring that the indicator only alerts to genuine recessionary conditions. To enhance predictive power, the recession signal is plotted three months in advance, giving investors a proactive edge in adjusting their portfolios.

Visual Precision:

Upon activation, the CoinDome Recession Indicator marks the chart with a clearly visible "Recession" label. This visual cue is designed to be unmissable, ensuring that users can instantly recognize and respond to the impending economic downturn.

User Experience:

The CoinDome Recession Indicator is optimized for the Monthly timeframe, with built-in safeguards that alert users if the chart is not set to the correct timeframe. This ensures that the indicator operates under optimal conditions, delivering the most reliable and relevant signals.

Why CoinDome?

In the complex world of financial markets, where timing is everything, the CoinDome Recession Indicator offers a sophisticated, research-driven approach to economic forecasting. Its dual-layer confirmation process, based on well-established economic principles, makes it an indispensable tool for anyone seeking to stay ahead of the curve in anticipating recessions.

2024年8月15日

發行說明

This indicator was built by CoinDome in collaboration with Quantum Research. More information at https://coindome.de

The CoinDome Recession Indicator is a meticulously crafted financial tool designed for serious investors and analysts who seek to anticipate macroeconomic downturns with precision. By leveraging a dual-layered analytical approach, this indicator combines the intricate dynamics of the Yield Curve inversion and the Federal Funds Rate movements to signal the onset of recessions with remarkable accuracy.

Core Mechanics:

1. Yield Curve Analysis:
The indicator precisely calculates the spread between the 10-Year and 2-Year U.S. Treasury yields, a classic measure of market sentiment regarding future economic conditions. A positive crossover of this spread, signifying the end of an inversion, is a pivotal signal used by the indicator. Historically, yield curve inversions have been a reliable precursor to economic slowdowns, and their normalization often precedes a recessionary phase.

2. Federal Funds Rate Dynamics:
In parallel, the CoinDome Recession Indicator monitors the Federal Funds Rate, focusing on its first decline after a sustained period of stability (at least one year). This decline often reflects shifts in monetary policy aimed at counteracting emerging economic weaknesses. The timing of this rate decline is critical, as it often aligns with early-stage economic contractions.

Integrated Signal Generation:

The indicator triggers a recession signal only when both of these critical events—the Yield Curve normalization and the Federal Funds Rate decline—occur within a closely defined timeframe of three years. This dual confirmation method minimizes false signals, ensuring that the indicator only alerts to genuine recessionary conditions. To enhance predictive power, the recession signal is plotted three months in advance, giving investors a proactive edge in adjusting their portfolios.

Visual Precision:

Upon activation, the CoinDome Recession Indicator marks the chart with a clearly visible "Recession" label. This visual cue is designed to be unmissable, ensuring that users can instantly recognize and respond to the impending economic downturn.

User Experience:

The CoinDome Recession Indicator is optimized for the Monthly timeframe, with built-in safeguards that alert users if the chart is not set to the correct timeframe. This ensures that the indicator operates under optimal conditions, delivering the most reliable and relevant signals.

Why CoinDome?

In the complex world of financial markets, where timing is everything, the CoinDome Recession Indicator offers a sophisticated, research-driven approach to economic forecasting. Its dual-layer confirmation process, based on well-established economic principles, makes it an indispensable tool for anyone seeking to stay ahead of the curve in anticipating recessions.

2024年8月17日

發行說明

Update: Small fixes with (math.abs(lastFedRateDecline - lastYieldCurveNormalization)